Sales at US retailers probably rose in November for the third time in the past four months, a sign consumer spending will sustain growth into 2010, economists said before a government report this week.
Purchases up 0.7% after a 1.4% gain the prior month, according to the median estimate of 62 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News before Commerce Department figures on December 11. Other reports may show the trade gap widened in October and consumers grew more confident this month.
Gains in sales show American households have survived the worst employment slump in the post-war era and are poised to join in the emerging expansion. Treasury secretary Timothy Geithner said the labour market is moving closer to a period of job creation instead of losses, which may give the economy an additional lift early next year.
“Job gains are in sight,” said Ken Mayland, president ClearView Economics LLC in Pepper Pike, Ohio. “With employment increases, we can expect people to begin buying some more homes, cars, appliances, etc.”
A Labour Department report last week showed the economy lost 11,000 jobs in November, the smallest decline since the start of the recession in December 2007. The jobless rate unexpectedly fell to 10% from 10.2%. The report showed “progress, but not good enough,” Geithner said in an interview. “The key test is when you see companies across the country starting to create jobs and add to payrolls,” Geithner said. “We’re getting closer to that point -- that’s the important thing. The economy is now growing and growth seems to be gradually strengthening.”
Auto sales are improving even after the federal “cash- for-clunkers” incentives ended in late August.
General Motors Co, Toyota Motor Corp, Ford Motor Co and Chrysler Group LLC all posted November sales that beat analysts’ estimates. The seasonally adjusted sales rate was 10.9 million vehicles, up from 10.45 million in October, according to industry figures released last week. Excluding automobiles, retail sales probably rose 0.4% after a 0.2% increase the prior month, according to the Bloomberg survey. A gain would be the fourth straight.
Holiday shoppers are turning out. Sales on Black Friday and the weekend after Thanksgiving advanced 0.5% as discounts on electronics and toys drew budget-conscious crowds, according to the National Retail Federation.
Best Buy Co, the biggest electronics chain, had bigger early-morning crowds than last year, said Brian Dunn, chief executive officer and president of the Eden Prairie, Minnesota- based company. He said shoppers would continue to see discounted pricing into the year-end holidays.
“You’re going to see great values throughout the holiday selling season,” he had said in an interview with Bloomberg Television.
TJX Corporation Inc reported sales up 15% in the four weeks ended November 28 from a year earlier. The operator of TJ Maxx and other low-priced apparel retailers forecasts strong sales through the end of the year. “We are confident in our momentum,” said Carol Meyrowitz, chief executive officer of TJX, said in a statement. The Reuters/University of Michigan preliminary index of consumer sentiment for December probably rose to 69 from 67.4 a month earlier, according to the Bloomberg survey.
