RIO DE JANEIRO, Sept 15 - Brazil's plan to capitalize state-run oil company Petrobras with 5 billion barrels of crude reserves in exchange for new shares may yield $15 billion to $25 billion in oil rights for the company, analysts said on Tuesday. President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva last month gave Congress a proposal for the capitalization, which is meant to strengthen Petrobras' (PETR4.SA) (PBR.N) balance sheet as it ramps up exploration of the vast offshore subsalt fields. Four analysts polled by Reuters said the final agreement between the government and the company will probably assign a value of $3 to $5 per barrel for the offshore reserves, far below the $10 figure initially floated by government leaders. The move would give Petrobras additional reserves on its books to facilitate financing for new subsalt projects. Lula's proposed laws would make Petrobras the sole operator of future projects in the subsalt province. Critics say the proposal involves an unnecessarily complex securitization of unexplored fields and risks diluting minority shareholders -- who will have to add additional capital as well to keep their current stakes. "It is a very good proposal for Petrobras, but is risky for minority shareholders," said Nelson Matos of Banco do Brasil Investimentos. He put the reserves' value at $3.80 to $5 per barrel based on factors such as the crude's expected quality. Brazil's Geracao Futuro estimated the value of the oil at $5 per barrel, while Brazil's Banco Fator estimated the value at $3 per barrel. Credit Suisse put the value of the oil at $5 to $6.5 per barrel. Congressional leaders last month gave a preliminary value estimate for the reserves of $10 per barrel. The first step is for Congress to approve the proposal. The government would then have to delineate the area that holds the reserves, hire an independent certifier to provide a volume estimate, and receive necessary approval from the securities regulator. Opposition leaders have also promised to challenge the proposal in the courts. The government holds 32.2 percent of the company's total market capitalization and 55.6 percent of voting shares. The total amount Petrobras receives from the operation will also include the amount minority shareholders put in to match the government's capitalization and maintain their percentage stake in the company. Credit Suisse said Petrobras could receive an additional $17 billion from contributions by minority shareholders. The proposal is part of a package of laws that would create a new state company to administer subsalt contracts, switch from a concession system to a production sharing system and open a fund to invest oil revenues in health and education.
