PARIS - The International Energy Agency is likely to lower its global oil demand forecasts significantly as more bleak economic data emerges, its chief said on Thursday.
"The possibility for downward revision will be high," Nobuo Tanaka, the agency's executive director, told Reuters in an interview on the sidelines of a Paris conference.
"We now have data from not only the IMF, but also the OECD. They all look gloomy. Inevitably, the possible downward revision could be significant, but I cannot say how big."
The IEA, the energy adviser to 28 developed countries, will release its next monthly oil market report in mid-April.
The agency bases its oil demand forecasts on the International Monetary Fund (IMF), which has been increasingly pessimistic about the health of the economy.
Tanaka reiterated his view that the fall in oil prices provided a natural stimulus for the global economy.
"Oil prices averaged almost $100 a barrel last year and this year, maybe $40. This $60 decline in oil prices will provide a $1 trillion dollar stimulus for the global economy."
In July last year, oil prices hit a peak above $147 a barrel propelled by strong demand from emerging markets such as China, then fell to below $33 in December as the credit crunch and subsequent economic downturns slashed demand.
The IEA has already said it expected oil demand to decline this year by more than one million barrels per day.
Tanaka said he never thought the current oil prices, around $50 on Thursday, were too low.
But he maintained his concern that delays and cancellations of energy projects caused by the plunge in prices might result in another supply crunch when the economy and demand recovered in 2010-2011.
He also described OPEC's decision in mid-March to stick to current output curbs, rather than introducing further supply cuts, as "sensible" and in line with the recent decline in global demand.
"But if OPEC cuts output to boost prices, it may be harmful to global economy." he added.
"The possibility for downward revision will be high," Nobuo Tanaka, the agency's executive director, told Reuters in an interview on the sidelines of a Paris conference.
"We now have data from not only the IMF, but also the OECD. They all look gloomy. Inevitably, the possible downward revision could be significant, but I cannot say how big."
The IEA, the energy adviser to 28 developed countries, will release its next monthly oil market report in mid-April.
The agency bases its oil demand forecasts on the International Monetary Fund (IMF), which has been increasingly pessimistic about the health of the economy.
Tanaka reiterated his view that the fall in oil prices provided a natural stimulus for the global economy.
"Oil prices averaged almost $100 a barrel last year and this year, maybe $40. This $60 decline in oil prices will provide a $1 trillion dollar stimulus for the global economy."
In July last year, oil prices hit a peak above $147 a barrel propelled by strong demand from emerging markets such as China, then fell to below $33 in December as the credit crunch and subsequent economic downturns slashed demand.
The IEA has already said it expected oil demand to decline this year by more than one million barrels per day.
Tanaka said he never thought the current oil prices, around $50 on Thursday, were too low.
But he maintained his concern that delays and cancellations of energy projects caused by the plunge in prices might result in another supply crunch when the economy and demand recovered in 2010-2011.
He also described OPEC's decision in mid-March to stick to current output curbs, rather than introducing further supply cuts, as "sensible" and in line with the recent decline in global demand.
"But if OPEC cuts output to boost prices, it may be harmful to global economy." he added.
