PERTH, Jan 19 - Macquarie Group (MQG.AX) has cut its forecast for Brent crude oil prices by over 20 percent to an average $59 a barrel over 2009, it said on Monday, citing weaker world oil consumption and high stock levels.
The Australian bank's economists see world gross domestic product (GDP) growth slowing by more than half to 1.5 percent this year, while its energy analysts said world oil demand was likely to shrink 0.7 percent, or 570,000 barrels per day (bpd), from last year's estimated consumption of 85.86 million bpd.
"Our assumption of a cut in world oil consumption in 2009 and the current high stock levels will combine to keep (oil prices) in a range $40-50 per barrel for most of the first half of 2009," Macquarie said in a report.
Macquarie's forecast for the West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil price for 2009 was also lowered to $60 from $77 a barrel.
The bank said oil prices, which have tumbled over $110 from July, would only recover when producer group OPEC implements large scale production cuts of between 3-3.5 million barrels per day, which Macquarie said was expected in the second half of 2009.
"Given that December OPEC output was 30.6 million bpd, we are looking for a further cut of 1.2-1.7 million bpd on top of the 1.8 million bpd already achieved," Macquarie said in a report led by David Johnson.
Macquarie analysts said oil prices could be higher than predicted if Russia, Kazakhstan and Azerbaijan also contribute output cuts.
Oil prices are expected to recover to around $75 a barrel at the end of the year, Macquarie said in the report.
The Australian bank's economists see world gross domestic product (GDP) growth slowing by more than half to 1.5 percent this year, while its energy analysts said world oil demand was likely to shrink 0.7 percent, or 570,000 barrels per day (bpd), from last year's estimated consumption of 85.86 million bpd.
"Our assumption of a cut in world oil consumption in 2009 and the current high stock levels will combine to keep (oil prices) in a range $40-50 per barrel for most of the first half of 2009," Macquarie said in a report.
Macquarie's forecast for the West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil price for 2009 was also lowered to $60 from $77 a barrel.
The bank said oil prices, which have tumbled over $110 from July, would only recover when producer group OPEC implements large scale production cuts of between 3-3.5 million barrels per day, which Macquarie said was expected in the second half of 2009.
"Given that December OPEC output was 30.6 million bpd, we are looking for a further cut of 1.2-1.7 million bpd on top of the 1.8 million bpd already achieved," Macquarie said in a report led by David Johnson.
Macquarie analysts said oil prices could be higher than predicted if Russia, Kazakhstan and Azerbaijan also contribute output cuts.
Oil prices are expected to recover to around $75 a barrel at the end of the year, Macquarie said in the report.
