WASHINGTON - OPEC is expected during the first quarter of 2009 to comply with 60 percent to 70 percent of the 4.2 million barrels per day the producer group has pledged to cut in its crude oil output, the U.S. Energy Information Administration said on Thursday.
The compliance rate will then start declining as some OPEC members that are heavily dependent on oil export revenue begin pumping more crude, leaving the producer group to meet only about half its output cut on average for next year, an EIA analyst told Reuters.
"Once you're looking at a year, compliance drops off greatly. As a group, we think 50 percent compliance for 2009 is a fair estimate," said the EIA analyst, who asked not to be identified.
The analyst said OPEC compliance "is always greatest" in the first quarter after an oil production cut is announced.
Unlike in the past, the EIA does not think Saudi Arabia will shoulder the production cut once other OPEC members start cheating, which the agency expects will happen after the first quarter of next year, the analyst said.
"When the Saudis don't see other people complying, they won't comply as much. They'll let the (oil) price fall," the analyst said.
The compliance rate will then start declining as some OPEC members that are heavily dependent on oil export revenue begin pumping more crude, leaving the producer group to meet only about half its output cut on average for next year, an EIA analyst told Reuters.
"Once you're looking at a year, compliance drops off greatly. As a group, we think 50 percent compliance for 2009 is a fair estimate," said the EIA analyst, who asked not to be identified.
The analyst said OPEC compliance "is always greatest" in the first quarter after an oil production cut is announced.
Unlike in the past, the EIA does not think Saudi Arabia will shoulder the production cut once other OPEC members start cheating, which the agency expects will happen after the first quarter of next year, the analyst said.
"When the Saudis don't see other people complying, they won't comply as much. They'll let the (oil) price fall," the analyst said.
