WASHINGTON - U.S. oil demand is expected to grow only 1 million barrels per day, or 0.2 percent, over the next two decades, as higher vehicle fuel standards and increased use of renewable fuels stifle petroleum consumption, the government's top energy forecasting agency said on Wednesday.
In its annual long-term forecast, the Energy Information Administration said this is the first time in more than 20 years the agency has projected virtually no growth in U.S. oil consumption.
"Since the 1980s, there's been a history of rising oil use. This projection projects a break in this trend with no appreciable growth in oil consumption between now and 2030," Howard Gruenspecht, acting head of the Energy Information Administration, said at an event unveiling the agency's forecast.
Gruenspecht added that the modest growth in demand for liquid fuels will be met by biofuels.
Total demand for marketed renewable fuels, including ethanol and biodiesel, is forecast to grow by 3.3 percent per year until 2030 due to the federal renewable fuel standard and state requirements for utilities to generate more of their electricity from renewable sources.
The agency also anticipates a sharp increase in the sales of vehicles with unconventional technologies such as flex-fuel and hybrid vehicles, while new light truck sales are expected to make up significantly less of total light duty vehicle sales.
Overall hybrid vehicle sales are expected to rise to 38 percent of new light duty vehicle sales in 2030 from 2 percent in 2007, the EIA said. In addition, plug-in electric hybrid vehicle sales, boosted by tax credits, are expected to climb to 90,000 vehicles annually and 2 percent of new light vehicle sales by 2030.
Despite the growth in alternative energy use, the EIA said coal, oil, and natural gas will still meet 79 percent of total U.S. primary energy supply requirements in 2030, down from 85 percent in 2007.
U.S. oil prices will rise from an average in 2009 of around $60 per barrel in 2007 dollars to $130 a barrel in 2030 ($189 in nominal dollars), the EIA said.
The higher world oil price "reflects tighter constraints on access to low-cost oil supplies in a setting where the forces driving long term demand in non-OECD countries remains as strong as previously expected," the agency said.
The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries is expected to increase its oil production 1 percent to 42.1 million barrels per day in 2030 from 33.68 million bpd in 2007, the EIA said.
Highlights of the EIA's long-term forecast include:
* Total domestic production of natural gas is projected to reach 23.7 trillion cubic feet by 2030, with onshore unconventional natural gas increasing from 9.2 tcf in 2007 to 13.2 tcf in 2030.
* Natural gas will make up 19 to 22 percent of electricity generation through 2030.
* U.S. energy related carbon dioxide emissions will grow 0.3 percent per year from 2007 to 2030, rising to 6,410 million tons in 2030.
* U.S. oil production rises from 5.1 million bpd in 2006 to 7.38 million bpd in 2030, spurred by higher oil prices.
In its annual long-term forecast, the Energy Information Administration said this is the first time in more than 20 years the agency has projected virtually no growth in U.S. oil consumption.
"Since the 1980s, there's been a history of rising oil use. This projection projects a break in this trend with no appreciable growth in oil consumption between now and 2030," Howard Gruenspecht, acting head of the Energy Information Administration, said at an event unveiling the agency's forecast.
Gruenspecht added that the modest growth in demand for liquid fuels will be met by biofuels.
Total demand for marketed renewable fuels, including ethanol and biodiesel, is forecast to grow by 3.3 percent per year until 2030 due to the federal renewable fuel standard and state requirements for utilities to generate more of their electricity from renewable sources.
The agency also anticipates a sharp increase in the sales of vehicles with unconventional technologies such as flex-fuel and hybrid vehicles, while new light truck sales are expected to make up significantly less of total light duty vehicle sales.
Overall hybrid vehicle sales are expected to rise to 38 percent of new light duty vehicle sales in 2030 from 2 percent in 2007, the EIA said. In addition, plug-in electric hybrid vehicle sales, boosted by tax credits, are expected to climb to 90,000 vehicles annually and 2 percent of new light vehicle sales by 2030.
Despite the growth in alternative energy use, the EIA said coal, oil, and natural gas will still meet 79 percent of total U.S. primary energy supply requirements in 2030, down from 85 percent in 2007.
U.S. oil prices will rise from an average in 2009 of around $60 per barrel in 2007 dollars to $130 a barrel in 2030 ($189 in nominal dollars), the EIA said.
The higher world oil price "reflects tighter constraints on access to low-cost oil supplies in a setting where the forces driving long term demand in non-OECD countries remains as strong as previously expected," the agency said.
The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries is expected to increase its oil production 1 percent to 42.1 million barrels per day in 2030 from 33.68 million bpd in 2007, the EIA said.
Highlights of the EIA's long-term forecast include:
* Total domestic production of natural gas is projected to reach 23.7 trillion cubic feet by 2030, with onshore unconventional natural gas increasing from 9.2 tcf in 2007 to 13.2 tcf in 2030.
* Natural gas will make up 19 to 22 percent of electricity generation through 2030.
* U.S. energy related carbon dioxide emissions will grow 0.3 percent per year from 2007 to 2030, rising to 6,410 million tons in 2030.
* U.S. oil production rises from 5.1 million bpd in 2006 to 7.38 million bpd in 2030, spurred by higher oil prices.
