LONDON - The world will have to live with the risk of an energy supply crunch and an oil price well above $100 a barrel in the years to come, the International Energy Agency (IEA) said on Thursday.
Massive investment of more than $26 trillion will be needed in the next 20 years to offset the impact of falling supply at aging oilfields and ensure the world has enough energy, the IEA said.
"There remains a real risk that under-investment will cause an oil supply crunch (by 2015)," the IEA said in an executive summary of the World Energy Outlook (WEO) to be released in full next week.
"The gap now evident between what is currently being built and what will be needed to keep pace with demand is set to widen sharply after 2010."
The emphasis on investing enough for supply to meet demand has been a recurrent theme in the IEA's annual WEO.
The 2008 edition shifts the focus to dwindling reserves.
It looked at 800 of the world's oilfields and found the average rate of decline was 6.7 percent for those that have passed their production peak. It expects that rate to increase to 8.6 percent in 2030.
Total world oil production is not expected to peak before 2030, but the more easily accessible sources of crude, or conventional oil, are expected to plateau toward the end of the projection period.
That will make the world more reliant on non-conventional sources, such as oil sands, which are very costly to process.
Conventional oil production alone will increase by only 5 million barrels per day (bpd) by 2030, the IEA, adviser to 28 industrialized nations, forecast in its reference scenario -- the most likely of a series of possible outcomes.
CONCENTRATION
At the same time, energy resources have become concentrated in fewer hands as any rise in production is largely confined to the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries.
According to the IEA's reference scenario, the bulk of any output increase will come from OPEC countries, with their share rising from 44 percent in 2007 to 51 percent in 2030.
Given the high cost of bringing on new output and the struggle to match supplies with demand, the IEA assumes consumers will pay an average of $100 a barrel over the next seven years and more beyond that.
The agency is careful not to predict prices, but makes price assumptions when assessing the energy balance.
Following this year's spike to a record high of $147.27 in July, it assumes crude will average $100 from 2008 to 2015 in real 2007 dollars and to rise beyond $120 in 2030.
In nominal terms, excluding any adjustment for inflation, prices would reach just over $200 per barrel in 2030, almost double that expected last year.
Costly fuel has had some impact on demand and the IEA has cut its demand forecast for 2030 by 10 million bpd compared with last year's WEO.
The 2030 supply forecast was revised downwards by the same amount compared with last year's report, taking world supply to 106 million bpd -- up from 84 million bpd in 2007.
Oil demand will rise by 1 percent per year on average, from 85 million bpd in 2007 to 106 million bpd in 2030, said the IEA.
World energy demand in general is expected to grow by 1.6 percent per year on average, with China, the world's second energy biggest consumer, together with India, accounting for just over half the increase.
Massive investment of more than $26 trillion will be needed in the next 20 years to offset the impact of falling supply at aging oilfields and ensure the world has enough energy, the IEA said.
"There remains a real risk that under-investment will cause an oil supply crunch (by 2015)," the IEA said in an executive summary of the World Energy Outlook (WEO) to be released in full next week.
"The gap now evident between what is currently being built and what will be needed to keep pace with demand is set to widen sharply after 2010."
The emphasis on investing enough for supply to meet demand has been a recurrent theme in the IEA's annual WEO.
The 2008 edition shifts the focus to dwindling reserves.
It looked at 800 of the world's oilfields and found the average rate of decline was 6.7 percent for those that have passed their production peak. It expects that rate to increase to 8.6 percent in 2030.
Total world oil production is not expected to peak before 2030, but the more easily accessible sources of crude, or conventional oil, are expected to plateau toward the end of the projection period.
That will make the world more reliant on non-conventional sources, such as oil sands, which are very costly to process.
Conventional oil production alone will increase by only 5 million barrels per day (bpd) by 2030, the IEA, adviser to 28 industrialized nations, forecast in its reference scenario -- the most likely of a series of possible outcomes.
CONCENTRATION
At the same time, energy resources have become concentrated in fewer hands as any rise in production is largely confined to the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries.
According to the IEA's reference scenario, the bulk of any output increase will come from OPEC countries, with their share rising from 44 percent in 2007 to 51 percent in 2030.
Given the high cost of bringing on new output and the struggle to match supplies with demand, the IEA assumes consumers will pay an average of $100 a barrel over the next seven years and more beyond that.
The agency is careful not to predict prices, but makes price assumptions when assessing the energy balance.
Following this year's spike to a record high of $147.27 in July, it assumes crude will average $100 from 2008 to 2015 in real 2007 dollars and to rise beyond $120 in 2030.
In nominal terms, excluding any adjustment for inflation, prices would reach just over $200 per barrel in 2030, almost double that expected last year.
Costly fuel has had some impact on demand and the IEA has cut its demand forecast for 2030 by 10 million bpd compared with last year's WEO.
The 2030 supply forecast was revised downwards by the same amount compared with last year's report, taking world supply to 106 million bpd -- up from 84 million bpd in 2007.
Oil demand will rise by 1 percent per year on average, from 85 million bpd in 2007 to 106 million bpd in 2030, said the IEA.
World energy demand in general is expected to grow by 1.6 percent per year on average, with China, the world's second energy biggest consumer, together with India, accounting for just over half the increase.
