WASHINGTON - Crude oil production from non-OPEC countries will not be able to keep up with growing global demand in the next few years, forcing oil consuming nations to rely more on the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries for supplies, the U.S. Energy Information Administration said Wednesday.
In its long-term energy forecast, the EIA lowered its estimate of non-OPEC oil production in 2010 to 51.8 million bpd, down 1.1 million barrels per day from last year's forecast. For the same period, OPEC oil output was cut by just 400,000 bpd to 37.4 million.
OPEC member countries are expected to invest in incremental production capacity, so their conventional oil output will account for about 43 percent of total global production through 2030, the EIA said.
Meanwhile, world oil demand in 2010 will be 1.5 million bpd less than previously thought at 89.2 million bpd, due to higher oil prices, the EIA said.
China will account for almost half the lower oil consumption, with the country's oil use cut 600,000 bpd to 8.8 million bpd. The EIA said its forecast for India's oil demand in 2010 was unchanged at 2.7 million bpd.
Overall, world energy consumption is forecast to grow 50 percent by 2030, with demand from developing countries rising 85 percent compared with a 19 percent increase in industrialized countries, the EIA said.
"We see strong growth in energy consumption," said Guy Caruso, who heads the EIA. "The vast share, majority of that growth will be in the emerging markets," particularly in Asian countries like China and India, he said.
Caruso said most of the growth in energy demand will be in transportation fuels since consumers in developing countries will likely purchase more vehicles.
The EIA said its new international outlook is based on the future oil prices it predicted last summer in the agency's U.S. long-term energy forecast. The agency said much higher prices in the long run would reduce forecast global oil demand by 13 million bpd in 2030.
"We do think that over the next 5 to 10 years the high (oil) prices will bring on new supplies that will put downward pressure on price. But we're not going back to the historic prices we saw in the 1980s and 1990s," Caruso said.
Saudi Arabia will remain the world's biggest oil producer in 2030, but just barely, with expected output of 13.7 million bpd. That's way down from the 16.4 million in Saudi production the EIA forecast in last year's report.
Russia's output is forecast to be 13.5 million bpd in 2030, up sharply from last year's EIA forecast of 11.5 million bpd.
"We're very optimistic about Russia's potential," Caruso said.
However, Saudi oil production in the short term will be higher than forecast last year, averaging 10.5 million bpd in 2010, up 1.6 million bpd. Russia's output is also expected to be up, by some 200,000 bpd, to 10.2 million bpd in 2010, the EIA said.
The EIA is the statistical arm of the Department of Energy. (Reporting by Tom Doggett; editing by Jim Marshall)
In its long-term energy forecast, the EIA lowered its estimate of non-OPEC oil production in 2010 to 51.8 million bpd, down 1.1 million barrels per day from last year's forecast. For the same period, OPEC oil output was cut by just 400,000 bpd to 37.4 million.
OPEC member countries are expected to invest in incremental production capacity, so their conventional oil output will account for about 43 percent of total global production through 2030, the EIA said.
Meanwhile, world oil demand in 2010 will be 1.5 million bpd less than previously thought at 89.2 million bpd, due to higher oil prices, the EIA said.
China will account for almost half the lower oil consumption, with the country's oil use cut 600,000 bpd to 8.8 million bpd. The EIA said its forecast for India's oil demand in 2010 was unchanged at 2.7 million bpd.
Overall, world energy consumption is forecast to grow 50 percent by 2030, with demand from developing countries rising 85 percent compared with a 19 percent increase in industrialized countries, the EIA said.
"We see strong growth in energy consumption," said Guy Caruso, who heads the EIA. "The vast share, majority of that growth will be in the emerging markets," particularly in Asian countries like China and India, he said.
Caruso said most of the growth in energy demand will be in transportation fuels since consumers in developing countries will likely purchase more vehicles.
The EIA said its new international outlook is based on the future oil prices it predicted last summer in the agency's U.S. long-term energy forecast. The agency said much higher prices in the long run would reduce forecast global oil demand by 13 million bpd in 2030.
"We do think that over the next 5 to 10 years the high (oil) prices will bring on new supplies that will put downward pressure on price. But we're not going back to the historic prices we saw in the 1980s and 1990s," Caruso said.
Saudi Arabia will remain the world's biggest oil producer in 2030, but just barely, with expected output of 13.7 million bpd. That's way down from the 16.4 million in Saudi production the EIA forecast in last year's report.
Russia's output is forecast to be 13.5 million bpd in 2030, up sharply from last year's EIA forecast of 11.5 million bpd.
"We're very optimistic about Russia's potential," Caruso said.
However, Saudi oil production in the short term will be higher than forecast last year, averaging 10.5 million bpd in 2010, up 1.6 million bpd. Russia's output is also expected to be up, by some 200,000 bpd, to 10.2 million bpd in 2010, the EIA said.
The EIA is the statistical arm of the Department of Energy. (Reporting by Tom Doggett; editing by Jim Marshall)
