PARIS - Global oil production is set to stabilize just below 100 million barrels per day by 2020 because of technology and geopolitical issues rather than a problem of reserves, executives at France's Total said on Monday.
"For oil production, we see things stabilizing at 95 million barrels per day (bpd) at a 2020 horizon. This includes conventional crude oil, heavy oils from Canada and Venezuela, and condensates and liquefied petroleum gas," said Jean-Jacques Mosconi, head of strategy at Paris-based oil major Total.
Mosconi, who spoke at a workshop on "energy and environment" organized at Total's headquarters, said the figure went up to 100 million bpd when including biofuels, and that this compared to the International Energy Agency's scenario for estimated production of 103 million bpd.
"We'll need to work hard to get to these 95 to 100 million because this includes production that does not yet exist," Total Chief Executive Christophe de Margerie told the news workshop.
Margerie and Mosconi insisted the stabilization of oil production was not linked to a problem of reserves, but to other issues that included geopolitical instability, technological challenges to extract oil that is more difficult to access.
"We (the world) have already produced around 1,000 billion barrels of oil and we have at another 1,000 billion ahead of us, so we don't really have a problem of reserves," Mosconi said.
"This (1,000 billion barrels) corresponds to 35 years (of production) and 60 percent of these reserves are located in the Middle East," he added.
Rising production in countries such as Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Nigeria, Venezuela and Canada will help make up for declining output in mature fields in Europe, Asia and Latin America, Mosconi said.
But growing environment concern is sometimes delaying or preventing projects, Margerie said, citing the case of Canada --
where the development of oil sands has come under intense scrutiny from environment groups and politicians about the industry's impact on air, land, water and native communities.
"Oil sands raised major environment challenges such as the management of water and carbon dioxide emissions... Now it all depends on how far populations are willing to go to satisfy their energy needs," Mosconi said.
As oil production stabilizes, alternative sources of energy must be developed to help meet the world's surging energy demands, Total said, citing solar and nuclear energies and clean coal as three key areas of development for the French group.
Total favors a new development of the nuclear industry, but this is a long-term investment, said Philippe Boisseau, Total's head of gas and alternative energies.
"The nuclear rebirth is necessary but this is a long-term move. This will represent only 6 to 8 percent of global energy needs by 2030," he said.
Earlier this year, Total announced it will join forces with French energy producer Suez and French nuclear reactor maker Areva to develop a nuclear power plant in the United Arab Emirates.
"For oil production, we see things stabilizing at 95 million barrels per day (bpd) at a 2020 horizon. This includes conventional crude oil, heavy oils from Canada and Venezuela, and condensates and liquefied petroleum gas," said Jean-Jacques Mosconi, head of strategy at Paris-based oil major Total.
Mosconi, who spoke at a workshop on "energy and environment" organized at Total's headquarters, said the figure went up to 100 million bpd when including biofuels, and that this compared to the International Energy Agency's scenario for estimated production of 103 million bpd.
"We'll need to work hard to get to these 95 to 100 million because this includes production that does not yet exist," Total Chief Executive Christophe de Margerie told the news workshop.
Margerie and Mosconi insisted the stabilization of oil production was not linked to a problem of reserves, but to other issues that included geopolitical instability, technological challenges to extract oil that is more difficult to access.
"We (the world) have already produced around 1,000 billion barrels of oil and we have at another 1,000 billion ahead of us, so we don't really have a problem of reserves," Mosconi said.
"This (1,000 billion barrels) corresponds to 35 years (of production) and 60 percent of these reserves are located in the Middle East," he added.
Rising production in countries such as Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Nigeria, Venezuela and Canada will help make up for declining output in mature fields in Europe, Asia and Latin America, Mosconi said.
But growing environment concern is sometimes delaying or preventing projects, Margerie said, citing the case of Canada --
where the development of oil sands has come under intense scrutiny from environment groups and politicians about the industry's impact on air, land, water and native communities.
"Oil sands raised major environment challenges such as the management of water and carbon dioxide emissions... Now it all depends on how far populations are willing to go to satisfy their energy needs," Mosconi said.
As oil production stabilizes, alternative sources of energy must be developed to help meet the world's surging energy demands, Total said, citing solar and nuclear energies and clean coal as three key areas of development for the French group.
Total favors a new development of the nuclear industry, but this is a long-term investment, said Philippe Boisseau, Total's head of gas and alternative energies.
"The nuclear rebirth is necessary but this is a long-term move. This will represent only 6 to 8 percent of global energy needs by 2030," he said.
Earlier this year, Total announced it will join forces with French energy producer Suez and French nuclear reactor maker Areva to develop a nuclear power plant in the United Arab Emirates.
