WASHINGTON - The government's energy forecaster offered a grim view of global oil market supply on Tuesday, cutting its prediction for supplies from both OPEC and non-OPEC countries for 2008 despite tight fundamentals this summer.
For the first time ever, the U.S. Energy Information Administration boosted its full-year price forecast for West Texas Intermediate crude oil - the U.S. benchmark - to above $100 a barrel.
A slowing U.S. economy is not enough to put the brakes on soaring global oil demand, the EIA said in its monthly oil market report. World oil consumption is still expected to grow by 1.2 million barrels per day (bpd) in 2008, the EIA said.
"The global oil market remains fundamentally tight entering the second quarter, despite a slowdown in U.S. oil consumption and growing risks to global economic growth," it said.
For 2008, EIA raised its forecast to $100.61 per barrel from the $94.11 projected a month ago. For 2009, EIA raised its forecast to $92.50 from $85.92 a month ago.
OPEC, which pumps 40 percent of the world's oil, is expected to pump 32.05 million bpd for the rest of 2008 - down 500,000 bpd from last month's forecast.
The EIA has consistently predicted that non-OPEC suppliers like Brazil, Azerbaijan, and Sudan will fill the gap later this year.
But the EIA keeps reining back expectations for new non-OPEC oil. Its latest projection is for 600,000 bpd of new supply later this year, down 100,000 bpd from a month ago due to delays in some key projects.
The EIA recognized that world oil markets should not count on non-OPEC supply.
"The pace and timing of non-OPEC supply growth will continue to be subject to possible delays in key projects, thus, production increases could be less than the current forecast," the EIA said.
Soaring U.S. stock levels are not enough to calm global oil markets, the EIA said. Because of a lack of any sizable surplus capacity outside of Saudi Arabia and supply outage concerns in Nigeria, Venezuela and Iraq, "a higher level of commercial inventories is desirable," the EIA said.
Stocks held by OECD members could enter the summer nearly 50 million barrels above the five-year average, and hold above the five-year average for the rest of 2008, the EIA said.
Due to lower-than-expected oil use in the fourth quarter of 2007 by some European and Asian nations and sagging U.S. gasoline demand, the EIA pegged total oil inventories held by industrialized nations at 2.58 billion barrels - up 53 million barrels from last month's forecast.
Inventories in the United States - which account for about 40 percent of global OECD inventories - rose 1 million barrels in the first quarter of 2008 - versus an average decline of 26 million barrels in past years.
For the first time ever, the U.S. Energy Information Administration boosted its full-year price forecast for West Texas Intermediate crude oil - the U.S. benchmark - to above $100 a barrel.
A slowing U.S. economy is not enough to put the brakes on soaring global oil demand, the EIA said in its monthly oil market report. World oil consumption is still expected to grow by 1.2 million barrels per day (bpd) in 2008, the EIA said.
"The global oil market remains fundamentally tight entering the second quarter, despite a slowdown in U.S. oil consumption and growing risks to global economic growth," it said.
For 2008, EIA raised its forecast to $100.61 per barrel from the $94.11 projected a month ago. For 2009, EIA raised its forecast to $92.50 from $85.92 a month ago.
OPEC, which pumps 40 percent of the world's oil, is expected to pump 32.05 million bpd for the rest of 2008 - down 500,000 bpd from last month's forecast.
The EIA has consistently predicted that non-OPEC suppliers like Brazil, Azerbaijan, and Sudan will fill the gap later this year.
But the EIA keeps reining back expectations for new non-OPEC oil. Its latest projection is for 600,000 bpd of new supply later this year, down 100,000 bpd from a month ago due to delays in some key projects.
The EIA recognized that world oil markets should not count on non-OPEC supply.
"The pace and timing of non-OPEC supply growth will continue to be subject to possible delays in key projects, thus, production increases could be less than the current forecast," the EIA said.
Soaring U.S. stock levels are not enough to calm global oil markets, the EIA said. Because of a lack of any sizable surplus capacity outside of Saudi Arabia and supply outage concerns in Nigeria, Venezuela and Iraq, "a higher level of commercial inventories is desirable," the EIA said.
Stocks held by OECD members could enter the summer nearly 50 million barrels above the five-year average, and hold above the five-year average for the rest of 2008, the EIA said.
Due to lower-than-expected oil use in the fourth quarter of 2007 by some European and Asian nations and sagging U.S. gasoline demand, the EIA pegged total oil inventories held by industrialized nations at 2.58 billion barrels - up 53 million barrels from last month's forecast.
Inventories in the United States - which account for about 40 percent of global OECD inventories - rose 1 million barrels in the first quarter of 2008 - versus an average decline of 26 million barrels in past years.
