China's CPI growth in June, which is estimated by analysts as 3.2 to 3.3 percent over last year, may slow on a month-on-month basis due to the eased pressure of inflation. And a long-awaited rise in interest rates may come as late as the fourth quarter.
Lu Zhengwei, veteran economist with the Industrial Bank, told the Economic Observer that based on prices in the first three weeks of June and historic trends, the month-on-month decrease of June's CPI may range from 0.3 to 0.6 percent.
"China's CPI may begin to fall back after peaking in June and July, and the inflation pressure for the second half of this year will be reduced, and this year's 3 percent target for CPI rise is achievable," Bank of Communication's senior analyst Tang Jianwei said.
As inflation pressure lifts, analysts predict the central bank may postpone the inertest rate increase to the fourth quarter or even next year. Previously, the market and analysts generally agreed on a possible July interest rates hike.
