LONDON - Oil will climb to a record average above $90 this year and five analysts now expect U.S. crude to average $100 or higher in 2008, an updated Reuters poll of analysts showed on Monday.
Societe Generale and Deutsche Bank raised their crude oil price forecasts last week.
Reflecting the changes, Reuters monthly survey of 29 analysts put the consensus forecast for U.S. crude futures in 2008 at an average of $90.55 a barrel, up from $83.87 in last month's poll.
German bank Landesbank Baden-Wuerttemberg has the highest assumption of $107, while research firm Bernstein Research the lowest at $72.50.
Societe Generale raised its oil price forecast for West Texas Intermediate (WTI) or U.S. crude to an average $101.20 this year, compared with its previous forecasts of $80.92.
The French bank said economic slowdown in the United States, the world's top consumer, would be mild and have little impact on oil prices. It also said that a large part of global oil demand growth would come from emerging markets such as China and the Middle East and that investors' money would continue to flow into the oil market.
"We fully anticipate that further investor flows will drive crude and product prices to new highs in the second quarter 2008," Mike Wittner, Societe Generale's global head of oil research, said in a note.
"We forecast front-month WTI to average $107.50 a barrel in the second quarter 2008, which implies a new record high of $115 a barrel to $120 a barrel."
U.S. crude has risen above $100 several times this year and it struck its record high above $111 earlier in March.
Societe Generale also increased its outlook for the 2009-2012 price by $27 to $100 a barrel because strong demand from Asia would continue.
Deutsche Bank cited risks on the supply side as a key reason for its revision.
The bank now expects U.S. crude to average $95.75 in 2008 and $102.50 next year.
"Our oil price update is all about supply risk," Deutsche Bank said in its note.
It noted the recent reduction in exports from Iraq following sabotage of a pipeline and Venezuela's nationalization of oil assets in the past year.
London's North Sea Brent futures are expected to average $89.30 for 2008, up from $82.40 in the previous poll.
The Reuters poll showed prices will peak this year, while U.S. crude prices will stay above $84 through 2010.
The previous poll showed an average price of around $79-80 through 2010.
Reuters monitors price forecasts by analysts, consultants and government bodies.
Societe Generale and Deutsche Bank raised their crude oil price forecasts last week.
Reflecting the changes, Reuters monthly survey of 29 analysts put the consensus forecast for U.S. crude futures in 2008 at an average of $90.55 a barrel, up from $83.87 in last month's poll.
German bank Landesbank Baden-Wuerttemberg has the highest assumption of $107, while research firm Bernstein Research the lowest at $72.50.
Societe Generale raised its oil price forecast for West Texas Intermediate (WTI) or U.S. crude to an average $101.20 this year, compared with its previous forecasts of $80.92.
The French bank said economic slowdown in the United States, the world's top consumer, would be mild and have little impact on oil prices. It also said that a large part of global oil demand growth would come from emerging markets such as China and the Middle East and that investors' money would continue to flow into the oil market.
"We fully anticipate that further investor flows will drive crude and product prices to new highs in the second quarter 2008," Mike Wittner, Societe Generale's global head of oil research, said in a note.
"We forecast front-month WTI to average $107.50 a barrel in the second quarter 2008, which implies a new record high of $115 a barrel to $120 a barrel."
U.S. crude has risen above $100 several times this year and it struck its record high above $111 earlier in March.
Societe Generale also increased its outlook for the 2009-2012 price by $27 to $100 a barrel because strong demand from Asia would continue.
Deutsche Bank cited risks on the supply side as a key reason for its revision.
The bank now expects U.S. crude to average $95.75 in 2008 and $102.50 next year.
"Our oil price update is all about supply risk," Deutsche Bank said in its note.
It noted the recent reduction in exports from Iraq following sabotage of a pipeline and Venezuela's nationalization of oil assets in the past year.
London's North Sea Brent futures are expected to average $89.30 for 2008, up from $82.40 in the previous poll.
The Reuters poll showed prices will peak this year, while U.S. crude prices will stay above $84 through 2010.
The previous poll showed an average price of around $79-80 through 2010.
Reuters monitors price forecasts by analysts, consultants and government bodies.
