LONDON - Britain and the United States blame OPEC for record high oil prices that have exacerbated a global economic slowdown, but some analysts believe the cause for oil's run-up may lie closer to home.
British Prime Minister Gordon Brown and U.S. President George W. Bush, both struggling to boost their slumping popularity, have pressed OPEC countries to open their taps to help ease oil prices.
But some analysts believe oil is being driven more by a battered dollar, weakened by a U.S. housing market collapse and credit crunch.
"Traditionally, speculators and OPEC ... are an easy scapegoat, but I think it's totally unfair," said Olivier Jakob, analyst at Petromatrix.
Oil climbed to a record high of $113.93 on Tuesday, up 17 percent from the start of the year.
Brown, who is to fly to the United States on Wednesday for talks with Bush, said he wanted to develop a collective plan to bring down oil prices.
"We are not producing enough oil ... and we can take collective action to persuade OPEC and others to get the oil price down," Brown said in an interview on Sky Television.
Bush has also repeatedly urged the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) to supply more oil.
"I think politicians are trying to talk down the oil price because obviously it's putting a squeeze on western economies," said Richard Batty, investment director at Standard Life Investments.
THE BUCK STOPS HERE
Analysts say politicians are ignoring the influence the global economy, especially the dollar, is having on oil.
"The energy markets seem to be completely wrapped up in the dollar's near-term prospects," said MF Global Energy in its daily research note.
The dollar has fallen to record lows against the euro, dragged lower by fears about the U.S. economy.
A weak dollar tends to raise prices for commodities denominated in that currency. They become relatively cheap for non-dollar buyers and offer investors, such as pension funds, an inflation hedge.
"OPEC could increase production by 500,000 barrels per day tomorrow, but that would not necessarily stop pension funds from buying into commodities," Jakob said.
OPEC has ignored pressure from oil-consuming countries to boost production and its biggest member Saudi Arabia, the world's leading oil exporter, has curbed supplies in response to weaker demand.
A Saudi oil source said on Friday Saudi Arabia had trimmed its output by about 200,000 bpd to 9 million bpd.
Saudi Oil Minister Ali al-Naimi also said last week that high oil prices were unrelated to supply.
"I am not going to pull back. I'm not going to dump crude on the market," he told reporters.
In its monthly report, OPEC on Tuesday forecast world oil demand would decline by 1.4 million bpd to 85.7 million bpd in the second quarter, when oil use typically slows as consumers in the northern hemisphere burn less heating fuel.
British Prime Minister Gordon Brown and U.S. President George W. Bush, both struggling to boost their slumping popularity, have pressed OPEC countries to open their taps to help ease oil prices.
But some analysts believe oil is being driven more by a battered dollar, weakened by a U.S. housing market collapse and credit crunch.
"Traditionally, speculators and OPEC ... are an easy scapegoat, but I think it's totally unfair," said Olivier Jakob, analyst at Petromatrix.
Oil climbed to a record high of $113.93 on Tuesday, up 17 percent from the start of the year.
Brown, who is to fly to the United States on Wednesday for talks with Bush, said he wanted to develop a collective plan to bring down oil prices.
"We are not producing enough oil ... and we can take collective action to persuade OPEC and others to get the oil price down," Brown said in an interview on Sky Television.
Bush has also repeatedly urged the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) to supply more oil.
"I think politicians are trying to talk down the oil price because obviously it's putting a squeeze on western economies," said Richard Batty, investment director at Standard Life Investments.
THE BUCK STOPS HERE
Analysts say politicians are ignoring the influence the global economy, especially the dollar, is having on oil.
"The energy markets seem to be completely wrapped up in the dollar's near-term prospects," said MF Global Energy in its daily research note.
The dollar has fallen to record lows against the euro, dragged lower by fears about the U.S. economy.
A weak dollar tends to raise prices for commodities denominated in that currency. They become relatively cheap for non-dollar buyers and offer investors, such as pension funds, an inflation hedge.
"OPEC could increase production by 500,000 barrels per day tomorrow, but that would not necessarily stop pension funds from buying into commodities," Jakob said.
OPEC has ignored pressure from oil-consuming countries to boost production and its biggest member Saudi Arabia, the world's leading oil exporter, has curbed supplies in response to weaker demand.
A Saudi oil source said on Friday Saudi Arabia had trimmed its output by about 200,000 bpd to 9 million bpd.
Saudi Oil Minister Ali al-Naimi also said last week that high oil prices were unrelated to supply.
"I am not going to pull back. I'm not going to dump crude on the market," he told reporters.
In its monthly report, OPEC on Tuesday forecast world oil demand would decline by 1.4 million bpd to 85.7 million bpd in the second quarter, when oil use typically slows as consumers in the northern hemisphere burn less heating fuel.
