MEXICO CITY - Mexican oil exports could drop by 38 percent to 875,000 barrels per day by 2017, down more than a third from current levels, as the country adds new refining capacity, according to the energy ministry's latest outlook.
The ministry's 10-year projections released on Wednesday said total crude output would drop to 2.75 million bpd in 2009 as yields decline at the aging Cantarell field but then recover gradually to 3.021 million bpd by 2017.
Output from Cantarell is expected to fall to 255,000 bpd by 2017 but new production from the onshore Chicontepec area should substitute for the declines, the report said.
Mexico should also begin early production of oil in the deep waters of the Gulf of Mexico by 2015, with output from deepwater fields reaching 98,000 bpd by 2017, the report said.
In last year's report, the ministry presented a best-case and worst case scenario. It predicted oil production would be 3.426 million bpd by 2016 under its best case scenario and 2.136 million bpd under its worst case scenario.
The 2007 report projected net crude exports of 1.505 million bpd under the best case scenario in 2016. The worst case scenario envisioned net crude exports of only 289,000 bpd in 2016 with imports of light crude oil to meet domestic refinery demand beginning as early as 2011.
Mexican energy authorities have been surprised by the rapid decline of the Cantarell oil field, which pumped over 2 million bpd as recently as 2004. State oil company Pemex now expects the field to produce as little as 700,000 bpd by the end of 2009.
Energy reform legislation passed by Congress in November is designed to loosen bureaucratic restrictions on Pemex and bring in more private sector expertise but analysts believe the reforms do not go far enough to bring about a substantial change in the outlook for the industry.
The ministry's 10-year projections released on Wednesday said total crude output would drop to 2.75 million bpd in 2009 as yields decline at the aging Cantarell field but then recover gradually to 3.021 million bpd by 2017.
Output from Cantarell is expected to fall to 255,000 bpd by 2017 but new production from the onshore Chicontepec area should substitute for the declines, the report said.
Mexico should also begin early production of oil in the deep waters of the Gulf of Mexico by 2015, with output from deepwater fields reaching 98,000 bpd by 2017, the report said.
In last year's report, the ministry presented a best-case and worst case scenario. It predicted oil production would be 3.426 million bpd by 2016 under its best case scenario and 2.136 million bpd under its worst case scenario.
The 2007 report projected net crude exports of 1.505 million bpd under the best case scenario in 2016. The worst case scenario envisioned net crude exports of only 289,000 bpd in 2016 with imports of light crude oil to meet domestic refinery demand beginning as early as 2011.
Mexican energy authorities have been surprised by the rapid decline of the Cantarell oil field, which pumped over 2 million bpd as recently as 2004. State oil company Pemex now expects the field to produce as little as 700,000 bpd by the end of 2009.
Energy reform legislation passed by Congress in November is designed to loosen bureaucratic restrictions on Pemex and bring in more private sector expertise but analysts believe the reforms do not go far enough to bring about a substantial change in the outlook for the industry.
