WASHINGTON - With the global economy getting stuck deeper in the mud, U.S. Energy Department's forecasting arm will probably again cut its estimate of world oil demand for this year, experts say.
When the department's Energy Information Administration releases its monthly short-term energy outlook on Tuesday, the demand forecast will reflect U.S. job losses at the highest level in 25 years and the World Bank's prediction that the global economy will decline this year for the first time since World War II.
"The economic numbers are horrible," said Phil Flynn, an analyst at Alaron Trading in Chicago. "I think (oil) demand continues to slow."
EIA's forecast is the first of three widely-watched reports on world petroleum use to be released this week. The EIA has lowered its estimate for 2009 global oil demand in 10 out of its last 13 monthly forecasts.
Jim Ritterbusch, president of Ritterbusch & Associates in Galena, Illinois, said bad economic news "should sustain a long string of downward (oil) demand revisions at least for 2009."
He expects EIA's forecast cuts in oil demand will get smaller though. Last month, the EIA lowered its forecast for 2009 global oil consumption by 400,000 barrels per day to 84.70 million bpd, the lowest level since 2005.
Flynn said using the auto industry as a gauge for energy demand "you don't see that demand growing in the near term, you see it contracting more before it grows."
Diesel fuel is expected to be the driver in lower overall global petroleum demand this year, compared to shrinking gasoline demand in 2008 due to high prices at the pumps.
"Globally, diesel is a more popular commodity as far as transportation (fuel) is concerned. So that is where I think you're going to see the decline," said Ritterbusch. "We see reflection of that as distillate stocks in the U.S. keep piling up."
Diesel demand will also be lower because fewer raw materials and finished goods are being transported by truck in the weak economy.
"In the absence of a quick and sharp economic recovery - which seems highly unlikely at present -- I think gasoline demand will continue to fare better than distillates demand in the months ahead," said Costanza Jacazio, an analyst with Barclays Capital.
EIA's report is one of three oil demand forecasts that will be released this week. The other two will be released Friday by the International Energy Agency and OPEC.
The three forecasts come just before OPEC ministers meet in Vienna on March 15 to decide whether to further reduce their oil production levels on top of the 4.2 million bpd in output they have already agreed to cut.
When the department's Energy Information Administration releases its monthly short-term energy outlook on Tuesday, the demand forecast will reflect U.S. job losses at the highest level in 25 years and the World Bank's prediction that the global economy will decline this year for the first time since World War II.
"The economic numbers are horrible," said Phil Flynn, an analyst at Alaron Trading in Chicago. "I think (oil) demand continues to slow."
EIA's forecast is the first of three widely-watched reports on world petroleum use to be released this week. The EIA has lowered its estimate for 2009 global oil demand in 10 out of its last 13 monthly forecasts.
Jim Ritterbusch, president of Ritterbusch & Associates in Galena, Illinois, said bad economic news "should sustain a long string of downward (oil) demand revisions at least for 2009."
He expects EIA's forecast cuts in oil demand will get smaller though. Last month, the EIA lowered its forecast for 2009 global oil consumption by 400,000 barrels per day to 84.70 million bpd, the lowest level since 2005.
Flynn said using the auto industry as a gauge for energy demand "you don't see that demand growing in the near term, you see it contracting more before it grows."
Diesel fuel is expected to be the driver in lower overall global petroleum demand this year, compared to shrinking gasoline demand in 2008 due to high prices at the pumps.
"Globally, diesel is a more popular commodity as far as transportation (fuel) is concerned. So that is where I think you're going to see the decline," said Ritterbusch. "We see reflection of that as distillate stocks in the U.S. keep piling up."
Diesel demand will also be lower because fewer raw materials and finished goods are being transported by truck in the weak economy.
"In the absence of a quick and sharp economic recovery - which seems highly unlikely at present -- I think gasoline demand will continue to fare better than distillates demand in the months ahead," said Costanza Jacazio, an analyst with Barclays Capital.
EIA's report is one of three oil demand forecasts that will be released this week. The other two will be released Friday by the International Energy Agency and OPEC.
The three forecasts come just before OPEC ministers meet in Vienna on March 15 to decide whether to further reduce their oil production levels on top of the 4.2 million bpd in output they have already agreed to cut.
