"This is an industry definitely in transition over the next 10 years," Mark Lauby, director of reliability assessment and performance analysis said in a press briefing on the sidelines of a Grid Week conference in Washington.
NERC foresees no reliability problems in the next 10 years related to generation capacity and deliverability, but does expect unprecedented change in the generation fuel mix from 2010 through 2019, he said.
In particular, gas-fired generation capacity will outpace coal generation, Lauby said. The report, expected to be released later Wednesday afternoon, finds that from 2010 to 2019, coal generation capacity will decline to 26% from 31% of total US capacity while gas generation will increase from
29% to 30%.
With concerns about future environmental regulations and federal legislation restricting carbon emissions, very little coal, about 4 GW of new capacity, is project to come online during that period. Moreover, a number of coal plants will be retired or reduced in capacity, Lauby said.
Expected new capacity for other resources includes about 34 GW of gas generation, about 5 GW of wind power, 13 GW of solar and 10 GW of new nuclear.
NERC also projects that electricity demand in 2010 compared with 2009 will be down by 4.1% and that demand will decline by almost 10% by 2019, NERC technical analyst John Moura said.
Accompanied with plans for electric transmission lines, the decreased demand and new resource projections mean "sufficient plans have been made" by the energy industry to provide reliable electric service across North America, Moura said.
"Reserve margins tend to be sufficient and significant over the next 10 years" because of the economic recession and demand-side management, or demand response, allowing for higher planning reserve margins, Lauby said.
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