This contrasts with the views of many in the industry that the glut will turn into a shortage by 2013 or 2014, Francisco de la Flor Garcia, director of regulation for Spain's Enagas, told a Platts conference in Brussels.
But with the uncertainty of the unconventional gas boom in the US and LNG developments, "nobody really knows," de la Flor Garcia added.
"Shale gas is not only competitive but in the US it is the lowest-cost gas--now it's cheaper than conventional gas and is seeing many technological refinements," he said.
Colette Lewiner, global leader for consultancy Capgemini's energy, utilities and chemicals practice, agreed that there are too many unknowns to say how long the gas glut will last.
"There are a lot of parameters to consider, such as how efficient measures to curb energy consumption will be," she said.
Other factors that could impact the glut include the impact of an economy which remains soft, exceptional weather forecasts and changes to market growth predictions, she said.
LNG market developments have played a significant role in the gas glut, with the US set to become an LNG exporter and Spain capable of exporting an excess in LNG of up to 20 billion cubic meters per year, said de la Flor Garcia.
Expected growth in Chinese gas demand, estimated at around 300 Bcm by 2020, could temper the oversupply, while interaction with other sectors such as power generation would be "crucial" to the gas market, de la Flor Garcia said.
The EU also needs to ensure that LNG capacity is fully exploited, for example by ensuring there is enough infrastructure to allow LNG to be exported from countries where there is a surplus, such as Spain, he said.
But Enagas and partners have so far failed to find enough private backing to build the 7.2 Bcm/year MidCat gas pipeline project, which would cross Catalonia in Spain to the east of the Pyrenees in France and come on stream in 2015.
"Shippers were not ready to commit for up to 10 years or more at this stage--if we had asked them three years ago maybe the pipeline would have gone ahead," said de la Flor Garcia.
Enagas and partners may reassess the MidCat project next year, he said.
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