Commonwealth Bank of Australia analyst Luke Mathews has opened a dispute over US wheat exports, warning over overoptimistic official estimates even as the world's biggest wheat seller flagged "solid" prospects.
Mr Mathews said that America's wheat shipments may fall 100m bushels short of the US Department of Agriculture forecast of 1.25bn bushels in 2010-11, to judge by the pace of export sales so far.
"Currently 28 weeks (or 54%) into the 2010-11 marketing year, year-to-date US exports inspections are only 590 million bushels, less than 50% of the annual target," Mr Mathews said.
"More worrying is the fact peak export period, July-to-October has passed. Typically at his stage of the marketing season, around 60% of annual US exports have already sailed."
'Aggressive upgrades'
To hit target, exports would need to pick up their pace by 30%, and beat by a margin their best performance for the second half of a crop year.
"We estimate that US wheat exports will struggle to exceed 1.15bn bushels," he said,
"The USDA has already aggressively lifted US wheat export estimates, and the current pace of exports suggests the US industry may fail to reach the USDA's existing estimate."
He added that the impact on wheat prices of weaker-than-forecast shipments was "unclear" thanks to the poor start that US winter wheat planted for next year's harvest has got off too.
'Enhanced export opportunities'
The comments contrast with those of many other observers.
Macquarie analysts, for instance, said last week that they were "surprised" the USDA had not, in its latest Wasde crop report, raised its estimate for wheat exports in 2010-11 further, "with evidence of a rapidly increasing sales pace due to poor quality crops in Canada and Australia".
And on Friday, the Canadian Wheat Board, the worlds biggest barley and wheat marketer, highlighted the "enhanced export opportunities" for US wheat now the world was being forced by short supplies elsewhere "to buy American".
"The US is on pace for its biggest wheat export programme in almost 20 years," the board said, noting the predominance in America's wheat export make-up of hard varieties which are in particular demand following poor quality of many crops elsewere.
"Given the quality and quantity deficiencies in the other exporting nations, demand will remain solid" for US wheat.
The highest exports logged by the US in the last 20 years are the 36.8m tonnes logged in 1992-93. Shipments topped 48m tonnes in 1981-82, in the country's wheat production heyday.
