The void left by the dearth of Black Sea wheat shipments in world supplies sent Australia's exports off to a cracking start to 2010-11 ?at least, until the worst of the flooding and soaring prices hit.
Australia's wheat exports jumped 20% to 919,000 tonnes in November, the second month of the country's marketing year, the country's statistics bureau said.
Added to the 1.64m tonnes in October, the best monthly figure for more than two years, the result took shipments for early 2010-11 some 70% higher than a year before as importers scrambled to replace supplies lost from Russia and its neighbours following drought-devastated harvests.
Shipments from South Australia were, at nearly 750,000 tonnes, up sevenfold in the two months.
'Horrific weather'
However, the data represent a period before the worst of the rains hit Australia, causing floods in Queensland and northern New South Wales, and which continued on Monday.
"Late harvest and grain movement on Australia's east coast continues to be buffeted by horrific weather," Luke Mathews at Commonwealth Bank of Australia, said.
"Yields and quality in unharvested crops will decline, while the movement of harvested grain to end users will be delayed."
It is unclear as yet how significantly logistical difficulties will impinge directly on Australia's export progress.
Queensland is a minor exporting state. And while New South Wales is a major shipper, and saw its stocks tumble 24% year-on-year in November thanks to rain-caused harvest delays, the state's bulk crop handlers still had 2.7m tonnes in store at the end of the month.
'Priced out'
However, the setbacks have, since the end of November sent Australian wheat prices flying, with benchmark east coast milling wheat standing at Aus$350.00 a tonne on Monday, making it, according to Mr Mathews, "the most expensive wheat in the world".
AWB, Australia's former wheat export monopoly, earlier this month reported two weeks ago that "pre-Christmas, Australian wheat was essentially priced out of the world trade".
"Harvest delays had caused quite a run-up in Australian cash prices, to well above international values."
"Aggressive" sales by farmers since Christmas had brought cash prices under pressure more recently, meaning ABW was "now seeing Australian wheat being much more competitive into export markets and export sales occurring".
Barley impact
AWB, which is in the process of seeing its grain handling operations sold on by Canadian buyer Agrium to agribusiness giant Cargill, added on Monday that worst fears for the impact of Australia's rains on malting barley production had proved unfounded, with crops proving "remarkably resilient".
"The eastern Australian barley harvest has produced more malting barley than forecasters expected?with South Australia generating record production," Mitch Morison, the AWB general manger commodities, said.
Nonetheless, he said that while "overall the malt market may have settled a fraction, the world supply and demand picture for coarse grains such as barley is relatively tight".
