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Firm exports help EU wheat prices to fresh highs

Firm exports help EU wheat prices to fresh highs

Write: Mahon [2011-05-20]

Wheat prices set a two-year top in Paris, and a record close in London, amid evidence of buyers even at these levels, and following a United Nations downgrade to expectations for Europe's wheat sowings.

Paris milling wheat for January ended up 1.0% at E247.25 a tonne, its highest finish since March 2008.

Its London feed peer 1.2% higher to ?96.25 a tonne, the best-ever close for a near-term contract, and ?.25 a tonne from matching the intraday record, recorded in September 2007.

The performance was attributed in part to technical factors, with many investors closing positions ahead of the Christmas break, and with the contracts' expiry process imminent.

European prices were helped by a firm performance by Chicago wheat, the world bellwether, which stood 2.4% higher at 18:15 GMT, for March delivery, lifted by a round of automatic buy orders in relatively thin trade.

Exports surge

However, the gains also followed an assessment by Toepfer, the Germany trading house, that European Union milling wheat was competitive on world markets even after a rally which has lifted Paris futures by some 80% since June.

"Milling wheat exports from the EU and France are still possible to non-EU destinations even at this higher price level," Toepfer said, while adding that it was less upbeat on prices of feed wheat, which was in competition with domestic barley and plentiful supplies in Australia.

The comments came shortly before the European Union revealed that it had cleared 316,000 tonnes of wheat this week, considered by the market as a strong figure, and taking the total shipments since the 2010-11 crop year began in July to 10.9m tonnes, up by one-third year on year.

Weather setbacks

Separately, the United Nation's Food and Agriculture Organisation cut to "about" 1%, from 3%, its estimate of growth in EU wheat sowings for next year's harvest.

"In the central and eastern [EU] states adverse weather hampered fieldwork and the areas sown are estimated to be less than earlier expected," the FAO said, noting that while spring plantings provided some opportunity for catch up, "the winter crop accounts for the bulk of the annual output".

Strategie Grains, the influential Paris-based analysis group, has forecast a 1.7% rise in soft wheat sowings for next year's harvest, although, including durum, it forecasts sowings flat at some 26m hectares.

German data on Wednesday showed winter wheat sowings the region's second-ranked producer of the grain unchanged at 3.26m hectares, after wet autumn weather prevented farmers from raising seedings to cash in on higher prices.

Rapeseed area slumps

The FAO also flagged a cut in winter wheat sowings in Russia and plantings "close to last year's levels in Ukraine", where official statistics on Wednesday showed winter plantings of the grain at 6.55m hectares, down 115,000 hectares, or 1.7%, year on year.

The Ukraine data estimated overall winter grain sowings dipping 5.5%, led by barley and, in particular, rapeseed, of which seedings have slumped by 24% to a four-year low of 1.08m hectares.

The decline in the popularity of winter rapeseed follows heavy losses this year to a cold winter, and bodes ill for EU supplies next year, with Ukraine a major exporter to the region.

Indeed, rapeseed futures also rose in Paris, adding 1.1% to a two-year high of E491.50 a tonne for the near-term February contract.