Historically tight levels of farm commodity supplies have left the US on course for one of its toughest ever "battle for acres", as crops fight for an increased weighting in farmers' sowing plans.
The US Department of Agriculture left growers with even more of a mountain to climb than they had thought to replenish crop supplies when it on Wednesday downgraded its estimates for domestic inventories of, in particular, corn and soybeans as of the end of 2010-11 to historically squeezed levels.
"The USDA's first major reports of 2011 added further pressure to already tight inventories," Rabobank said.
The thinness of the stocks makes it especially crucial for all crops to win favour with farmers in the US ?the world's biggest corn and soybean growers, and major exporters in cotton and wheat too - for the spring planting season.
"We expect the battle for acres in coming months will be one of the fiercest in history," the bank added.
Second thoughts?
Such is the extent of competition that even the extra 3.6m acres of winter wheat seeded last autumn are not secure.
"There is a possibility that some acres of planted winter wheat will be ploughed under to accommodate more profitable crops," Rabobank said, noting that USDA estimates for wheat supplies, while lower than analysts had expected, were relatively ample.
Furthermore, much of the hard red winter crop has, thanks to dry weather, got off to a miserable start.
In fact, if a forecast from Gerry Bange, the chairman of the USDA's World Agricultural Outlook Board, this week is correct that US farmers will sow an extra 10m acres this season, some winter wheat may need to be ripped out to ensure corn and soybeans sufficient are to rebuild supplies.
The "huge demand" for these crops "makes it imperative that we plant an extra 5m-6m corn acres and 1m-2m soybean acres", Iowa-based broker US Commodities said.
Quest for land
Some extra soybean area, at least, could be achieved by so-called double cropping, in which, where climate allows, the oilseed is planted in early summer on fields vacated by a freshly-harvested a winter wheat crop.
Fresh land will need to be found through measures such as ploughing up pasture, taking land out of conservation schemes, or skipping a hay crop, Jason Roose at US Commodities said.
And certainly, on current economics, it would not be too difficult to justify sowing extra corn.
"That's the most profitable crop," Mr Roose said, with its higher bushel yields making it, on paper, the lucrative option.
Sensitive ratio
Still, that is not the only dynamic that will come into play. Corn's hunger for fertilizer ?costs are typically more than twice as high for corn as for soybeans, according to Purdue University ?may cloud its popularity among some farmers.
"If you haven't got you fertilizer booked, that may mean you prefer to plant beans," Mr Roose said.
Another is the weather. Mr Roose himself, who also farms, switched some corn sowings last year to soybeans which can be sown later, after a wet spring spoiled his planting plans.
And then there is the relative price of corn and soybeans nearer sowing time.
According to Macquarie, a corn price half that of soybeans, or more, tends to switch acres away from the oilseed, with some observers saying a ratio of 2.5 or more tips the balance the other way. The current ratio is around 2.2.
Ultimately, however, good agricultural practice will have a big say too.
"Farmers will keep their crop rotation going," Mr Roose said.
