The squeeze in Europe's rapeseed supplies, which drove prices to a record high, may extend into 2011-12, thanks to significant levels of winterkill damage to crops in Germany and Poland.
"Heavy black frosts" in late February, which drove temperatures in eastern Germany to -15 degrees Celsius and Poland to below -20 degrees, have compounded the setbacks to winter rapeseed caused by late planting, Toepfer International said.
The freeze has "probably caused further damage to the poorly-developed rapeseed, and resulted in above-average winterkill", the influential German-based crop merchant said.
And, with the two countries among the European Union's biggest producers, accounting for nearly 40% of the region's output between them, the damage may prolong the squeeze which has driven supplies to their tightest in eight years, and helped rapeseed futures to a record E521.75 a tonne in Paris in January.
In rapeseed, the EU is expected to end 2010-11 with a stocks-to-use ratio ?a key measure of the readiness of supplies, and so of the prices they can command ?of 4.1%, half the figure of a year before.
Smaller area?
There was "little sign" of the tight supply situation "easing off", Toepfer said, noting the demand for the oilseed to meet requirements for biodiesel, which have turned the EU into a net rapeseed importer.
"The harvested [EU] acreage could decrease in comparison to the previous year's 6.9m hectares," the group said.
"If there is also a further rise in the demand for rapeseed for biodiesel production, it is doubtful from the current perspective that stocks will increase significantly in 2011-12,"
For inventories to recover would require "high yields in the other big producing countries in the EU?particularly in France and the UK".
Spring vs winter
In Germany, crop damage has been centred in Brandenburg and Mecklenburg West Pomerania, where the threat from deep frosts has been compounded by temperatures swinging to +15 degrees Celsius during the day.
While affected fields could be reseeded ?high winterkill in 2002-02 saw 5.8% of German winter rapeseed ploughed in, with 13.3% resown in 1995-96 ?spring-planted crops offered lower yields.
The late sowing of the winter rapeseed crops stemmed from persistent rains in August and early September, the prime planting period, causing sowing delays of three-to-four weeks.
Rapeseed for May stood 2.9% higher at E424.50 a tonne in Paris on Wednesday, amid a firm revival in crop prices.
