Strategie Grains has, for a second time, cut its forecast for the European Union grain harvest this year, even as worries mounted about dry weather in large swathe of the region.
The influential analysis group downgraded by 1.1m tonnes, to 289.8m tonnes, its forecast for the crop.
While representing a 5.5% increase on last year's harvest, the downgrade, reflecting in part a trim to sowings estimates, leaves the harvest projection short of the historic highs reaped at the end of last decade.
Barley took the brunt of the downgrade, with the production estimate cut by 600,000 tonnes to 55.2m tonnes, thanks to reduced hopes for northern and western parts of the region.
The forecast for soft wheat was trimmed by some 100,000 tonnes to 135.5m tonnes.
'Dry conditions'
The revision comes amid growing concerns over prospects for crops emerging from winter dormancy after drier-than-usual winter weather across most of the region.
A belt from eastern Spain through south parts of France, the region's top producing country, into Eastern Europe received less than half the average rainfall between mid-December and mid-February, data from weather service MDA show.
Rainfall in central and north east England, as well as Wales, showed a similar shortfall.
"New concerns about dry conditions are rising in Europe, on a large area from the south eest regions of France to Poland," Agritel, the Paris-based consultancy, said on Thursday.
"This will require close monitoring in the coming weeks, even if the crops are not at threat for the moment."
Earlier in the week, FCStone analyst Jaime Nolan noted that "we are seeing dryness in south France and northern Italy" with "southern Europe seeming to require moisture".
'Still grim'
The concerns leave a third major winter wheat crop under the microscope over dryness fears, with Chinese and some US crops also suffering well publicised moisture shortages.
China's ministry of agriculture on Thursday warned that, although some regions had seen rain and snows, forecasts for a further dry spell had raised concerns of the effected area spreading north.
"While the size of drought-affected land has shrunk, the anti-drought situation is still grim," ministry wheat expert Guo Tiancai said.
