Oil World has put a stop to a run of better news on South America's soybean crops, warning of a risk that Brazil's harvest may not achieve the record which had looked a formality a month ago.
The influential analysis group for a second week running cut 1m tonnes for its forecast for Brazil's soybean harvest, the world's second largest after America's.
The downgrade reflected damage estimated at 1.3-2.0m tonnes from persistent rains which, as with Australia's grains harvest, have dampened production hopes.
"While a record crop was still standing in the fields at the end of February, we now believe that actual soybean production will turn out between 69m-70m tonnes," Oil World said.
And there were "some estimates" that the crop may not fail to top last year's record of 68.5m tonnes.
Better progress
The caution followed a string of better news over rain setbacks, with Brazilian farmers harvesting 14% of their crop last week - equivalent to some 10m tonnes ?to take the total proportion in store to 44%.
In Mato Grosso, the main producing state, "1m hectares was harvested in one week", consultant Kory Melby said, adding that one large farm operator had told him yields were more than 2 bushels an acre better than last season.
Meanwhile, deliveries are rebuilding towards normal levels at the port of Paranagua in southern Brazil, which was cut off last week by damage to bridges on the main access road.
Indeed, while rainfall has persisted they are confined in the main to northern regions, with conditions "more favourable" in the south, Meteorlogix said.
Broker US Commodities said: "Brazil rains continue but the total moisture is diminishing."
'Full speed'
Furthermore, Michael Cordonnier, at Soybean and Corn Advisor, raised his estimate for Paraguay's crop by 300,000 tonnes to 7.3m tonnes, putting it on course to set a record for a second successive season.
"After a delayed start due to wet conditions, harvesting is now proceeding at full speed and the only thing that could derail the crop would be a return of heavy rains," Dr Cordonnier said.
"That does not appear to be in the near term forecast."
Farmers in the world's fourth-biggest soybean exporting country were "very pleased" with results from the first one-third of the harvest.
'Pockets of dryness'
In Argentina, the third-ranked exporter, the farm ministry late on Monday pegged the domestic soybean crop at 50m tonnes, in its first production estimate.
The figure, which follows rains for crops held back by dryness in early months, is higher than many other forecasts, including the USDA's 49.5m-tonne estimate, and the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange's 48.8m tonne forecast.
Dr Cordonnier, who estimates the crop at 48.5m tonnes, said that "pockets of dryness remain a concern, especially in southern and western locations".
