Morocco and Pakistan have ended a run of waning hopes for this year's wheat crops, with timely rains improving harvest prospects in both countries, which are major consumers of the grain.
Pakistan's production, while expected to come in 400,000 tonnes lower than last year's, will, at 23.5m tonnes, healthily beat gloomy forecasts after the country's flooding last year.
Indeed, the country, which returned to exports in December, will raise shipments from 1.0m tonnes this season to 1.2m tonnes in 2011-12, US Department of Agriculture foreign staff said.
Meanwhile, Morocco's reliance on imports ?which rose an estimated 30% last year ?is expected to diminish after "favourable weather conditions" left it looking at a 1m-tonne rise to 5.9m tonnes in wheat output this year.
Weaker prospects ]
The better outlooks follow a run of, small, downgrades to forecasts for harvests in major exporting countries, with a late spring and poor seed quality trimming hopes in Russia, while Canada is bracing for flooding delays to forthcoming plantings.
Dryness is setting back winter crops in parts of Europe and, especially, the US.
Late on Friday, Canada's farm ministry pegged world wheat production at 670.0m tonnes this year, a figure in line with estimates from other analysts but, on its forecasts, not enough to prevent a further 1.9m-tonne decline to 180.0m tonnes in world wheat stocks at the close of 2011-12.
Commerzbank analysts on Monday said they viewed the rebound in wheat prices late last week as being down to idea that "the supply situation appears to have tightened somewhat", as well a technical rebound from three-month lows hit following the Japanese disaster.
Thin inventories
In Morocco, a better wheat harvest would reduce a reliance on imports for supplies which, as of January ?as high food prices stoked civil unrest in North Africa ?had fallen to sufficient to cover only two months' consumption, less than the government target.
Seedlings have enjoyed "timely and sufficient rainfalls throughout most of the grain production regions", with precipitation for the September-to-January period nearing 30 centimetres, and coming in 38% above average levels.
"Overall, the crop is reported to be developing well," the USDA attaches said.
However, they stopped short of making a forecast on imports, which jumped 30% to 3.06m tonnes in calendar 2010, with a further 400,000 tonnes ordered this year to rebuild stocks.
'Timely sowing'
In Pakistan, a 23.5m-tonne crop would be the third largest on record, significantly better than looked likely following last year's floods.
"There were concerns about significant reduction in the wheat area planted?[given] that land in the flood-affected regions might not be ready to plant in time for wheat cultivation," attaches in Islamabad said.
"But ensuing weather conditions, coupled with farmer and government efforts, resulted in timely sowing of wheat in critical areas."
