May will prove a critical month for deciding whether delays to planting Brazil's winter corn crop feed through into significant yield damage, and dash slim hopes of record production.
Brazilian farmers, attracted by high grain prices and an extension to government support deadlines, have taken a gamble on unusually benign weather in keeping sowing so-called safrinha corn until well beyond the ideal planting window.
Rains delays to the soybean harvest, in tying up land, prevented growers in Mato Grosso, the main safrinha corn state, sowing much more than half the crop by the end-of-February cut-off for optimal seedings.
Seedings were being wound up this week.
But it will be a further two months to see whether that gamble has paid off, and kept Brazil in with any chance of beating in 2010-11 its corn production record of 58.6m tonnes three seasons ago.
Rain roulette
"The second crop corn that is planted will have a greater risk of yield reductions due to how late it will be planted," US Department of Agriculture attaches in Brasilia said.
Attache forecasts for Brazil corn, 2011-12 and (year-on-year change)
"If the rains stop in May, which is the normal pattern [in Mato Grosso], much of the crop will suffer because it will still be in a critical phase of development that requires moisture."
In fact, last year, the rainy season ended in Mato Grosso during the first week of April.
"If the rains end at the same time in 2011, the late planted safrinha corn could be severely impacted by the dry weather," Michael Cordonnier at Soybean and Corn Advisor said.
"If the rainy season ends prematurely, or even if it ends at the normal time, then the late-planted corn has a real challenge."
Outlook for 2011-12
The uncertainty over the safrinha crop - which while translating as "little harvest" now accounts for about 40% of Brazilian corn output ?has led to a huge variation in estimates for Brazil's corn output in 2010-11, with forecasts ranging from 50m-60m tonnes.
The USDA attaches pegged production at 53.5m tonnes, 500,000 tonnes higher than the official USDA forecast.
In their first forecast for 2011-12, they estimated output at 55.0m tonnes, reflecting an expectation of sowings flat at 13.0m tonnes, but with yield showing gradual improvement as growing practices improve.
Genetically engineered corn accounted for 44% of Brazil's main crop this time, up from 5% in 2008, when biotech seed was introduced.
However, the attaches cautioned that "elevated soybean prices and continued Chinese demand may persuade producers to plant more soybeans in lieu of summer crop corn" next season.
