The United Nations has come in with one of the most upbeat estimates yet for the next world wheat harvest, hinting at a recovery in Black Sea output sufficient to put exports firmly on the agenda.
World wheat production in 2011 will rise 3.4% to 676.0m tonnes, thanks to a "favourable outlook" presented by higher sowings and more benign weather, the UN's food agency, the Food and Agriculture Organization, said.
"Plantings have increased, or are expected to increase, in many countries in response to strong prices, and yield recoveries are expected in areas that were affected by drought in 2010," the FAO said.
The estimate is higher than the 670m tonnes which appears a consensus for 2011-12 so far, being advocated by observers including Canada's agriculture ministry, Macquarie Securities and Societe Generale.
Black Sea hopes
However, the FAO stressed the prospects for a revival in output in the Black Sea producers, with Russia's harvest set to rebound by nearly one-third from last year's drought devastated crop to 55.0m tonnes, and Kazakhstan's to bounce 56% to 15.6m tonnes.
While autumn sowings had been held back by continuing dryness, good rains since mid-November "favoured crop germination and early establishment, and most of the crops are reported in satisfactory condition", the agency said.
Furthermore, in Russia, a fall in winter wheat seedings "is expected to be more than offset by increased spring plantings".
Assuming good weather, "an average cereal crop could be obtained in the sub-region in 2011 to maintain export earnings and satisfy domestic demand".
The region's grain exports in 2010-11 have been severely limited, and banned in Russia, because of the poor harvests, which followed a sharp run up in shipments in the previous decade.
US output to fall
The FAO forecast a 4.0% rise to 142.0m tonnes in the European Union wheat crop, citing a rise of some 2% in sowings, largely on land pulled in from set aside programmes, and "generally satisfactory conditions so far".
Canada's harvest will bounce 7.8% to 25.0m tonnes, as growers who lost significant ground to wet weather last year achieve higher seedings.
However, the US crop will fall 5.8% to a four-year low of 56.6m tonnes despite increased area, "reflecting expectations of increased abandonment in parts of the central and southern Plains because of persistent drought".
The FAO gave no forecasts for consumption or trade, but noted that in North Africa, a major importing region, "early prospects for the 2011 wheat crops are generally favourably, except in Tunisia where dry conditions point to a repeat of last year's drought-reduced crop".
