Home Facts company

US sowings and China help crops extend price surge

US sowings and China help crops extend price surge

Write: Rhonwen [2011-05-20]

Agricultural commodities ended what one analyst termed "one of the most volatile weeks in history" with further hefty gains, sending corn and cotton limit up, and London wheat back to ?00 a tonne.

The gains were spurred by a report appearing to confirm speculation that China had resumed purchases of US corn during the break in prices earlier in the week, which drove futures prices of the grain in Chicago some $2 a bushel below those on the Dalian exchange.

Furthermore, sowings data from Informa Economics, the analysis group, pegged US sowings of corn and soybeans below areas deemed necessary to secure enough production to replenish thin supplies.

Although Informa raised by some 850,000 acres, to 91.8m acres, its forecast for US corn seedings, the figure was below the 92m-acre estimate from the US Department of Agriculture, whose data sets market benchmarks.

"People are thinking we need more like 92m-93m acres to have a good chance of rebuilding stocks," Jason Roose at US Commodities.

For soybeans, Informa cut its sowings estimate by some 1.4m acres to 75.3m acres.

The USDA, which will update its forecasts in a much-anticipated report on March 31, has pencilled in plantings of 78m acres.

Weather fears

Other reasons cited for firm prices included a weaker dollar, improving the competitiveness of dollar-denominated commodities on export markets, and lingering weather concerns.

"Dryness in Ukraine is affecting rapeseed. It is wet in Canada. It is too wet in Brazil, and getting very dry in France," a UK grain trader told Agrimoney.com.

Meanwhile, the concerns behind the collapse in prices earlier in the week faded.

"Japan has gone to page 2. Libya is still on page 1, but Bahrain is on page two," the trader said.

Price reaction

Chicago corn - whose daily trading limits were expanded to $0.45 a bushel after the grain closed the last session at its ceiling - traded up the new maximum on Friday at one point.


The May lot eased a touch to stand 42 ?cent, or 6.8%, higher at $6.99 ?a bushel at 17:15 GMT.

Cotton for May held on to the maximum gains of 7.0 cents allowed, taking the fibre to 199.12 cents a pound.

In London, wheat for May touched ?00 a tonne before easing into the close. Paris wheat added 4.5% to E233.75 a tonne.

Relative weakness in Chicago soybean prices, which stood 2.9% higher at $13.73 ?a bushel, was attributed by increase to bank reserve requirements in China, the top importer of the oilseed, which is attempting to curb food inflation.

Historic week

The moves meant that, in three session, Chicago corn for May has traded over a range of more than 80 cents, some 13%.

Wheat has achieved similar movement.

"This is probably one of the most volatile weeks we have seen in history," Mr Roose said.