"As in the past few years, electronics will drive our exports this year and in coming years because of the increasing digitalization of the world," he said.
"Although some people suggest that the world electronics cycle has already peaked in the middle of last year, I think the growth rate will slow only a little bit and there will still be substantial growth."
Electronics make up 50 percent of exports, compared with 30 percent a decade ago. About 70 percent of electronic exports are parts and components, for which the mainland is the largest market.
Poon said that since the end users are from the US, European or other mature markets, a global slowdown led by the United States will have some impact on Hong Kong electronics, as well as overall, exports.
Poon said the clothing sector will also benefit this year because US and European buyers are gradually shifting away from other Asian suppliers back to Hong Kong and the mainland.
"Since the latter part of 2005, the United States and Europe have started to impose quotas on Chinese clothing imports on most sensitive items, which resulted in US and European buyers switching to other Asian countries. But the quotas have not substantially hindered mainland clothing exports.
"Because of this, more US and EU buyers have started shifting their sources away from other Asian suppliers back to Hong Kong and the mainland. The trend should continue this year."
On the other hand, growth rates for the toy, watch and jewelry industries are likely to weaken this year.
The toy industry, in particular, will face more major setbacks due to rising production costs and a shift in demand away from traditional toys to electronic games, Poon said.
Hong Kong-based toymakers in the Pearl River Delta are increasingly focusing on including high-tech electronic components in toy designs.
"The cost of producing toys has increased substantially due to rising oil prices that have pushed up the prices of plastics," he said.
