Number of planes expected to soar as restrictions end
BEIJING - Low-altitude airspace will be opened for private flights in five to 10 years but industry insiders are reluctant to predict how many will be taking advantage of it, although they agree numbers will shoot up.
"You should just let your imagination soar," said Zhang Hongbiao, director of the science and technology committee of the Aviation Industry Corporation of China, the country's major aircraft maker.
The future market for general aviation aircraft will see explosive growth just like the automobile market in China, he said. General aviation refers to all aviation excluding military and commercial jets.
Meng Xiangkai, president of China Aviation Industry General Aircraft Co Ltd (CAIGA), agreed with Zhang. He said: "When you review forecasts for China's automobile market over the past years, it's impossible to find a correct one. Usually, actual demand was several times larger than the predicted number. It will be just the same with China's general aviation aircraft market."
Latest policy
The confidence stemmed from a circular issued in the second half of last year by the State Council and the Central Military Commission that promised to gradually relax restrictions on low-altitude airspace (below 1,000 meters) within the next five to 10 years. The circular said, "Pilot projects will be carried out nationwide between 2011 and 2015 and the reform (on low-altitude airspace management) will be deepened between 2016 and 2020".
Last month, Li Jiaxiang, head of the Civil Aviation Administration of China (CAAC), was more precise. He said the low-altitude airspace will be totally opened up by the end of the 12th Five-Year Plan (2011-2015) period.
Following pilot projects carried out in Jilin and Heilongjiang provinces in Northeast China and Guangdong province in South China last year, trials will be expanded to Central China's Hunan and Hubei provinces, South China's Guangxi Zhuang autonomous region, and the eastern part of the Inner Mongolia autonomous region in North China this year, he said. Hainan province started reforming its airspace restrictions below 1,000 meters in January.
According to Outlook Weekly magazine and other media reports, the ongoing pilot projects involve trial flights across a pre-determined region to investigate local airspace and flight routes and look for possible spots for landing and taking off.
With the information and data in hand, the authorities review existing laws and regulations concerning low-altitude airspace, draft new rules to better manage the airspace, and embark on research on how to provide necessary services.
There were 1,010 small aircraft registered on the mainland at the end of 2010. The United States, the world's largest general aviation market, has more than two thirds of the world's total 330,000 general aircraft.
Industry insiders used to attribute the reason for general aviation's slow development to the management of airspace. In China, it is under the control of the military. A recent report on Xinhuanet.com said that only a number of air routes and very limited airspace are in the hands of the CAAC. Even then, general aviation aircraft pilots cannot take off without going through bureaucratic procedures. They need to report their every movement to the military for approval, a task that usually takes at least half a day to accomplish.
But things will change for the better after the gradual opening of airspace below 1,000 meters. At an international air show this year, Wang Changshun, deputy head of the CAAC, said by 2015 China's general aviation fleet would at least double its current size to 2,000, with an annual growth rate of 15 percent. The flight hours of general aviation aircraft will reach 280,000, with an annual growth rate of 16 percent.
Air taxis?
Industry insiders said that most small fixed-wing airplanes and helicopters used as air taxis or for crop-dusting, cloud-seeding and sightseeing will all be able to take off with far less hassle than now. According to a report by Yun Ming, an analyst with Everbright Securities Co Ltd, cited by City Economic Herald last year, agricultural and forestry tasks only need airspace between 15 meters and 300 meters from the ground, while aerial sports, training and sightseeing usually remain below 1,500 meters.
Some general aviation activities will still be restricted, said Meng Xiangkai. They include corporate jets that travel over long distances and occupy airspace around 4,000 meters, as well as aerial photography tasks that require a height more than 1,000 meters.
According to Yun, activities including parachute jumping (up to 2,400 meters), advertising in the air (up to 3,000 meters), and remote sensing (between 3,000 meters and 7,000 meters) could also be restricted to current limits.
But both Yun and Meng believe that opening the airspace below 1,000 meters is only the first step in a move that will eventually lead to a higher percentage of free sky.
Meng said that what the industry values most about the reform is that "there will be changes to China's airspace management system".
Fledgling period
In order for small aircraft to take off, there is a need for certain conditions and provisions that are not yet widely in place, insiders have said.
"If you want to manage small planes, you must be able to see them and communicate with them. The opening of the low-altitude airspace needs a radar network for that range of altitude," Meng said.
"First, it takes time to discuss and decide who will be responsible for building the radar network, or who will pay for it. Then, the purchasing, installation and adjustment of the radars will also take time."
The radar network is only a part of the low-altitude airspace management system that China needs to develop so that small aircraft can fly safely and efficiently in airspace below 1,000 meters.
Wu Tongshui, president of the Civil Aviation University of China, said that the low-altitude airspace management system is more complicated than the existing system for commercial air transport and involves more sophisticated technologies, because it not only oversees flight safety and efficiency, but also ensures national security.
Feng Peide, deputy director of the science and technology commission for the Aviation Industry Corporation of China, said the government also needs to set up a set of traffic rules for low-altitude airspace.
"Some small aircraft fly fast, others fly slowly. Without rules, there will easily be disasters," Feng said, adding the government is already preparing them and is likely to publish them within a year.
Also, private plane owners need parking spaces, gas stations and maintenance services, but there are few of these on the mainland now.
"Many people are eager to see the airspace opened up. They have asked me why the government announced its intentions but keeps the airspace closed for the moment," Meng said.
"The answer is because there are so many things that need to be done. People have little information. I have more information than others, so I know that if we don't do the job step-by-step, the opening (of the low-altitude airspace) will turn out to be a disaster."
The demand for general aviation aircraft and airspace management facilities is set to expand in China in a few years.
CAIGA announced in March that it has signed an agreement to acquire Cirrus Industries Inc (Cirrus), the second-largest manufacturer of single-engine general aviation aircraft in the world, behind Cessna, in terms of the number of planes delivered. The deal is expected to be completed this year if it gets approval from both the United States government's Committee on Foreign Investment and China's National Development and Reform Commission and the Ministry of Commerce.
Cirrus has delivered nearly 5,000 piston-engine airplanes to 58 countries and regions over the last decade, but there are only approximately nine Cirrus planes on the Chinese mainland. Meng said CAIGA has planned to promote three Cirrus models and offer maintenance services on the mainland - which is regarded as one of the world's largest potential markets for general aviation aircraft because of its increasing population, large geographical area and expanding infrastructure. CAIGA will also consider building a production line on the mainland to produce Cirrus planes at a lower cost, if demand in China and Southeast Asian countries warrants the move. CAIGA is also planning to offer pilot training, establish flight clubs and carry out other general aviation businesses.
Foreign aircraft makers have also raised their expectations for sales in China and brought top products to the potential market. Last week, the 2011 Shanghai International Business Aviation Show took place in Shanghai, with participants from at least 100 companies including jet makers, ground service providers, maintenance operators, and training providers.
Eurocopter, a leading helicopter manufacturer in Europe, has set up a subsidiary in China and several offices in China's major cities - Beijing, Shanghai, Shenzhen, Chengdu, Wuhan and Hong Kong.
Bruno Boulnois, chief executive officer of Eurocopter China, said on April 1 at a luxury products show for the super-rich in Sanya, in South China's Hainan province, that the company will also bring to Chinese consumers its special edition helicopter models that it designed in conjunction with Hermes and Mercedes-Benz.
The good news is not just for aircraft makers.
Wang Changshun, deputy head of the Civil Aviation Administration of China, has said that China will build new airports for general aviation aircraft and speed up the updating of airspace management facilities, which is expected to provide services for 10.4 million landings and take-offs, up 70 percent from 2010 numbers, with an annual growth rate of 11 percent. It means new markets for airspace management facility suppliers.
According to media reports, the Civil Aviation Administration mostly uses foreign suppliers for airspace management facilities, including France's Thales Group and three US companies - Lockheed Martin Corporation, Raytheon Co and Telephonics Corporation.
Wu from the Civil Aviation University of China said that as the low-altitude airspace management system involves national defense, the government is considering using more home-development facilities. He revealed that a major program headed by the CAAC and the Ministry of Science and Technology was launched in the second half of last year to support the airspace reform, including the development of an entire airspace management system.
