Home Facts industry

BP spill vexes U.S. voters, but passions could cool

BP spill vexes U.S. voters, but passions could cool

Write: Nowell [2011-05-20]
The massive oil spill in the Gulf of Mexico stands as a major issue for U.S. voters, according to recent polls.

But with the mid term elections still several months away, those feelings could dissipate and Americans could view the spill as one of many issues in November's Congressional elections, some experts said.

In mid April, an explosion in an oil rig off Louisiana's coast caused a massive oil leak. Several attempts to plug the hole have failed, and criticism has mounted over U.S. Barack Obama's handling of the crisis, as the oil continues to pump an estimated 60,000 barrels per day into the ocean with no end in sight.

According to a survey released Thursday by polling company Rasmussen, 71 percent of U.S. voters said the government's response to the BP spill is at least somewhat important in how they vote in the mid term elections. Thirty-five percent rated the leak as a very important factor in determining their vote.

Twenty-seven percent said the government's response was of limited importance in the elections.

A Gallup poll also released Thursday found that the oil spill is the third most important issue for those surveyed, after the economy and unemployment.

Twenty-eight percent said the economy in general is their number one concern and 21 percent cited unemployment. Eighteen percent named the massive oil leak as the most important problem facing the nation, marking a jump of 17 points from the previous month. That ranks among the largest monthly shifts since 2001, when Gallup started taking the monthly survey of voters' most important issues, the organization said in a statement.

"The only larger one-month increase was the 46-point spike in the percentage mentioning terrorism after the 9/11 terror attacks in 2001. There was a 13-point increase in the percentage mentioning natural disasters after Hurricane Katrina in September 2005," the statement said.

But the question remains whether voters' angst over the spill will last long enough to drive the mid-term elections, and how Americans' view of the Obama administration's handling of the crisis will reflect on Congressional Democrats.

The spill may be more important to voters now, given the president's televised speech on the issue Tuesday night and the government focus on plugging the leak, Gallup said in a statement.

Steven Kull, director of the Program on International Policy Attitudes at the University of Maryland, said people tend not to vote according to their feelings on a single issue but rather a variety of factors go into forming their impression of a candidate.

Americans also have short memories when it comes to voting, and the spill could seem like old news come November, some analysts said.

But if there are continued consequences from the spill -- economic or environmental, for example -- that could drive public opinion against the Obama administration, which could reflect badly on Democrats.

And as long as the oil keeps pumping out, it will continue to impact the perception of the administration's competence, Kull said.

John C. Fortier, research fellow at the American Enterprise Institute think tank, said while the spill is bad news for Obama, the president's popularity ratings are holding steady.

"Clearly the public is unhappy -- extremely unhappy with BP, very unhappy with the federal government's response and unhappy with Obama's response," he said.

"(But) President Obama's job approval numbers have not been affected much by the spill even though people are unhappy with his performance," although that could change, he said.

Some experts argue that Obama did not demonstrate leadership on the issue during his televised speech Tuesday night.

"Few were happy with the president's speech," Fortier said. "Especially striking was the criticism from Obama's left."

William A. Galston, senior fellow at the Brookings Institution think tank, noted that many commentators said before the speech that the president's task was to communicate a sense of command and reassure the public that the administration is up to the task of dealing with the spill.

"Although he delivered the speech in the Oval Office, he did not fill the room, and his text seemed too skimpy and schematic," he said. "If the oil spill is in fact an event of sufficient gravity to warrant a speech from the most elevated venue a president possesses, the occasion called for a larger, more ample accounting than the president chose to offer."

"My guess is that this speech will come to be seen as a missed opportunity," he said.