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Asia gasoline to USWC, Mexico down sharply on narrowing economics

Asia gasoline to USWC, Mexico down sharply on narrowing economics

Write: Atrus [2011-05-20]
p>The volume of arbitrage gasoline heading from Northeast Asia to Mexico and the US West Coast in September has fallen sharply to an estimated 30,000-70,000 mt (253,500-591,500 barrels), as import demand eases amid expectations of narrowing economics, industry sources said this week.


In comparison, about 161,100 mt of gasoline loaded from South Korea and Singapore in August have headed for the USWC and Mexico.


To date, Mexican state-owned Pemex's trading arm PMI, is seeking to charter a medium-ranged vessel for mid-September loading from South Korea to the west coast of Mexico.


Another shipping inquiry was indicated, for a possible move in mid-September from South Korea to the US West Coast, but the destination was understood to be tentative and the cargo could well point back to Asian destinations, shipping sources noted.


PMI's potential shipment is its regular monthly term supply and was not heard seeking spot cargoes from elsewhere in the Asian region -- an indication that arbitrage economics are starting to look unworkable.


Adding to this, is the upcoming gradual switch to winter specifications in Portland starting with a higher Reid Vapor Pressure of 11.5 kPa in mid-September from 9.0 RVP in summer, amid a build in gasoline stocks along the US West Coast.


All these could well pressure down cash differentials for conventional gasoline, diverting low sulfur Northeast Asian barrels back to Asia.


Platts assessed Portland unleaded 87 gasoline at 203.99 cents/gal ($85.68/barrel) on August 25, equivalent to a premium of 21.45 cents/gal against the settlement value of 182.54 cents/gal for NYMEX October RBOB futures.


Benchmark Mean of Platts Singapore 92 RON gasoline in Asia was assessed at $76.97/b at close of Asian trade on August 25, and premiums were talked at 60-70 cents/b on an FOB Northeast Asia basis for non-oxygenated, low sulfur gasoline.


The lumpsum freight rate for a MR-sized vessel moving from South Korea to the USWC was about $1.2 million, or $4.70/b.


China Chemical Weekly: http://news.chemnet.com/en/detail-1403616.html