The contract dropped 12.2 cents Friday.
Brian LaRose, an analyst with United-ICAP, said since 1998 every rally off a major low has been followed by a retracement of at least 78.6 cents, adding that if $2.409/MMBtu was that low the market could climb to at least $2.956/MMBtu in the near term.
However, if $2.409/MMBtu was not a major low, gas "could find itself headed" to the $1.568/MMBtu-$1.074/MMBtu area, LaRose said in a report.
Energy research firm Cameron Hanover, in a report, said there seems to be little reason for a market rally and said that while some traders may feel that a tropical storm or hurricane could rally the market "it seems increasingly unlikely that it will lead to as much as the precautionary closure of even a single rig."
"For all intents and purposes, this tropical season seems to be over for natural gas traders," the firm said.
The contract was trading between $3.465/MMBtu and $3.502/MMBtu in electronic trading.
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