But Richard Jones, deputy director of the industrialized world's energy watchdog, also suggested that the recent fall in OECD oil inventories had less to do with increased demand than to the flattening of the forward curve.
"OPEC is moving fast enough, I think they are," Jones told reporters in Singapore.
OPEC's current 24.845 million b/d output target, which does not cover quota-exempt Iraq, has been in place since the beginning of 2009 but actual production has been well above this level over the entire period.
Jones noted that the group's compliance with its nominal limits had slipped from around 80% when oil prices were under $40/barrel in early 2009 to the current level of closer to 50%.
"They are not changing their official targets, but you see a decline in the adherence to the targets," he said.
"At the trough, which would have been early 2009, they had very high compliance rates, and it has been declining ever since," said Jones.
"I think it is a reflection of the demand that OPEC is seeing, and some producers are taking advantage of opportunities in the market to satisfy demand. If they didn't, then the market would be tighter and prices would be going up," he said.
Jones said he thought OPEC was keen to avoid a repeat of 2008, when oil prices soared to more than $150/b.
"I think they know it wasn't in their interest to see prices get that high," he said.
Jones said the IEA did not see any "fundamental shortage in the market."
"We know that some of the storage, the stocks are coming down. But stocks are still very high. The market is well-supplied, we don't see a shift in the fundamentals," he said.
Indeed, he added, "I don't see that there is a fundamental reason to expect demand to surge in 2011."
The IEA reported Friday in its monthly oil market report that industry-held oil stocks in OECD countries had fallen by an estimated 42.8 million barrels in September to end the month at 2.75 billion barrels.
Oil held in short-term floating storage fell to 59 million barrels at the end of October, down from 76 million barrels a month earlier, with the fall split between Middle Eastern crude and refined products in Europe and Africa, the IEA said.
"People are interpreting the fall in stocks as a surge in demand. I'm not sure that's the case. It may be that people that held those stocks just feel that now is the time to liquidate," Jones said.
"I really feel that they are testing the margins. I know stocks have come down. But why did stocks come down. The forward curve is flattening so all of a sudden it doesn't make sense to hold stocks. It's the low interest rates that have allowed stocks to be held and now the curve is getting flat enough
that even with low interest rates it no longer makes sense to hold the stocks."
