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China; Oil product price hikes become unpredictable under inflation pressures

China; Oil product price hikes become unpredictable under inflation pressures

Write: Schuyler [2011-05-20]
High inflation made increases in domestic oil product prices unpredictable, although international crude prices climbed beyond 4% in the past 18 consecutive working days.


Implementation of price increases in the near term would have ripple effect on prices of the other commodities, which would be against the government's recent policies on curbing price surges, market sources denoted.


The government would be prudent in adjusting oil product retail ceiling prices when international crude benchmarks were higher than US$80/bbl and may consider squeezing refining margins of refineries, according to the Oil Market Management Method (Draft) promulgated by the National Development & Reform Commission in May 2009.


Furthermore, upward adjustment in gasoil retail ceilings would be in vain to ease supply tightness, wholesale prices of which were about Yuan 600/mt higher than retail prices Thursday, the sources said.


Based on past experiences and calculated by the current rises in crude prices, the upside room for gasoil retail prices was only Yuan 200/mt.


The window for adjusting oil product prices is forecast to open on Nov 24, if the reference crude prices stayed above US$82/bbl in the coming week.