Recently, Deutsche Bank issued a report, saying that the correlation rate between China's exports growth and US GDP growth is up to 0.8. But in the next few months, this is very likely to cool down China's "excitement" of exports.
Deutsche Bank China Region's Chief Economist Majun pointed out that China's low-end electronics manufacturing, shipping, furniture and textile industries will be under the negative impact of US economic slowdown.
"For every 1% fall in the US GDP growth, China's export growth will slow down by 6.5 %." Ma's judgment is that the US economic slowdown will occur in the next few quarters, at that time China's export growth may drop to a record low of 15%. During that quarter, it is expected that China's GDP growth will be 1.2 % lower than the second quarter.
As the largest "customer" of "Made in China" in the world, the United States and China's economic cycle is showing a high degree of correlation in shipping, integrated circuits, electronic components, semiconductors, furniture, textiles and other industries, thus the impact of US economic wind on China's exports goes without saying.
