Australian wool production is forecast to fall in the 2007/08 season as lower flock numbers from the drought reduce the number of sheep available for shearing over the next 12 months.
In the latest release by the Australian Wool Innovation (AWI) Production Forecasting Committee, the forecast for Australian shorn wool production in the 2007/08 season is 410 mkg, 4% lower than the previous season.
This decline in wool production is based on a fall in sheep shorn numbers of 5%, while fleece weights for Australia are forecast to rise modestly on improving seasonal conditions in parts of eastern Australia.
However, Committee Chairman Dr David James said that fresh wool production and availability to the market will be low for the remainder of 2007 because of lower sheep numbers, lower fleece weights from the drought and the run-down in grower stocks.
“Improved seasonal conditions in parts of Australia will flow through to an improvement in wool production only in the second half of the 2007/08 season, given most of the wool shorn this Spring has already been grown.”
Dr James reiterated the Committee’s focus was on forecasting fresh wool production, and that production does not always equate to supply. This has been particularly the case in the 2006/07 season, when the volume of wool tested by AWTA has not fallen to the same extent as the forecast decline in production in 2006/07.
The latest forecast for shorn wool productionfor the 2006/07 season is for a 7.6% decline in production to 426 mkg greasy. AWTA test volumes have declined by around 4% year-on-year.
“This discrepancy reflects the release of on-farm stocks by growers from wool grown in previous years, which the Committee estimates to have been around 15 mkg greasy or 3.5% in 2006/07,” said Dr James.
“This illustrates the distinction between production and supply. Wool supply, as measured by auction offerings, has been particularly robust for the 2006/07 season, with the increase in auction offerings largely being a result of earlier shearings and the release of woolgrower stocks held in-store and on-farm. At the same time, fresh wool production has fallen significantly.”
However, unlike the 2006/07 season, supply and availability of Australian wool in the 2007/08 season will more closely reflect changes in production given all anecdotal reports are of substantially depleted on-farm and in-store broker stocks leading into the next season.
A full report of the latest forecasts will be available after 2.00pm Wednesday, 4th July on the AWI website.
