Bargain hunters at a Circuit City store in North Bergen, New Jersey, on Black Friday, the first shopping day after Thanksgiving. AP
A post-Thanksgiving bump may not be enough to rescue what might be the worst holiday season for US retailers in six years.
While US consumers came out in greater numbers in the days after the US Thanksgiving holiday than the National Retail Federation trade group forecast, discounts of up to 70 percent may have been what drew them to stores, the Washington- based NRF said.
The National Retail Federation said 172 million shoppers went to stores and websites, a 17 percent increase from a year ago and more than a forecast of 128 million. They spent an average of $372.57, up 7.2 percent from last year, according to an e-mailed survey conducted for the NRF by BIGresearch, a Worthington, Ohio-based polling firm.
The early turnout may not be enough to overcome consumers' reluctance to spend as they cope with climbing unemployment and housing costs and shrinking values in their stock holdings. The NRF said its forecast remains that holiday sales will rise 2.2 percent to $470.4 billion, the slowest growth in six years.
"Black Friday will not change the fact that it is going to be a challenging holiday season," NRF spokeswoman Kathy Grannis said. In 2007, while 4.8 percent more customers shopped during the period, they spent on average 3.5 percent less. Total holiday sales rose 3 percent last year, the smallest gain since 2002.
This year's pattern may be similar to 2002, when total holiday sales rose 1.3 percent, Grannis said. Consumer spending accounts for more than two-thirds of the US economy.
Shoppers have spent 4 percent less online this holiday season so far, although purchases ticked up from last year on Thanksgiving and Black Friday, Reston, Virginia-based research firm Comscore Inc said.
Five fewer days between Thanksgiving and Christmas and more budget pressures may be driving shoppers to make some earlier purchases, Ron LaPierre, president of Los Angeles-based comparison shopping site PriceGrabber.com, said.
"Times are tough, and when times are tough you need to make sure you get every ounce of value you can out of whatever budget you're able to allocate yourself," LaPierre said.
Black Friday visits to PriceGrabber.com rose 11 percent this year, more than he'd anticipated, LaPierre said.
Shoppers are buying more games, puzzles, arts and crafts items and "basic clothing", LaPierre said.
Based on a sampling of stores at about a dozen of its malls, business was unchanged to up mid-single-digits on a percentage basis on Nov 28, Taubman Centers Inc spokeswoman Karen MacDonald said in an e-mail. On Nov 29, business was unchanged to "slightly under on average", she wrote. Taubman, based in Bloomfield Hills, Michigan, owns or manages 24 shopping centers in 11 states.
Retailers can make more than a third of their annual income during the holiday season. This year, though, merchants are more willing to make steeper markdowns, which will erode profit, Grannis said.
