China's consumer price index (CPI), a major gauge of inflation, is expected to have grown at a slower pace in December 2010, the Financial News reported Thursday.
Tang Jianwei, a senior analyst at Bank of Communications, said the CPI for the last month of 2010 may have increased around 4.4 percent year-on-year, while Lu Zhengwei, a senior economist at Industrial Bank, expects the figure to be up 4.3 percent year-on-year.
Most institutions estimate the index in December to have grown between 4.1 percent and 4.5 percent year-on-year, lower than the 5.1 percent in November, which was a 28-month high, according to the paper.
Estimates from Shenyin & Wanguo Securities say the growth rate is to fall to 4.5 percent year-on-year, and Gaohua Securities expects the figure to drop back to 4.2 percent year-on-year, the paper said.
China's CPI rose 3.2 percent year-on-year in the first 11 months of 2010, and growth rate for the whole year may reach 3.3 percent, surpassing the 3 percent target set by the Chinese government at the beginning of 2010, said Tang from Bank of Communications.
But Sheng Laiyun, spokesman for the National Bureau of Statistics, said the target is a periodical and guiding target for the government's macro-control. Even if the CPI of 2010 goes slightly above 3 percent, it is still within the government's target
Experts say inflation pressure is still mounting at the beginning of 2011.
Price hike pressure may rise in the first quarter of 2011, with CPI in certain months breaking 6 percent year-on-year, according to Tang. Confronted with surging prices in the first half of 2011, China may further lift reserve ratios and interest rates, Tang said.
But Lu from Industrial Bank expects the inflation gauge to start at a lower level in 2011, surging later in the year, causing overall CPI growth in 2011 to be between 5 percent and 6 percent.
