The USDA report released today was neutral to bearish and took some of the steam out of the recent up turn in prices. With almost no changes to the U.S. and China, we got a significant change in Pakistan with a 1.25 million bale cut in production which was offset by a 1 mb cut in consumption.
Only other notable change was a .5 mb increase in India to reach 24 mb's which was the main reason world ending stocks rose .5 mbs to 55.29 mb's. See page 2 for more details. Volume was weak again today with only 13,000 futures and 9,000 options as the market was not very impressed with the USDA report or the decert orders today for almost 27,000 bales which brings our total over 100k in the last several weeks.
Overall, the market feels like we are in holiday mode and even the friendly report for wheat turned into a 20 cent move lower after several strong days of trading. Corn and soybeans did manage to close higher 6 and 10 cents as oil prices seem to be stalling around $90 and gold at $800.
The dollar has managed to hold the recent gains and looking more stable in spite of a 25 basis point cut by the FED. However, the stock market was not satisfied and profit taking from the recent gains pushed the DOW down almost 300 pts or 2.2%. We keep getting closer to the year end and after today’s reports it may be hard for the specs to have much incentive to push for new highs.
There was some profit taking today as we closed just above the 9-day moving average. Market broke some support at 64.50 and the market looks like it may try and test the 63.00 levels short term. RSI is under 40% and the specs are still 16% long. The demand has been steady but not overwhelming as the market looks like it cannot find enough ammunition to retest the contract highs any time soon.
Market trade may slide sideways in a 63/65 cent range as we get through the holidays and into the new year.
Only other notable change was a .5 mb increase in India to reach 24 mb's which was the main reason world ending stocks rose .5 mbs to 55.29 mb's. See page 2 for more details. Volume was weak again today with only 13,000 futures and 9,000 options as the market was not very impressed with the USDA report or the decert orders today for almost 27,000 bales which brings our total over 100k in the last several weeks.
Overall, the market feels like we are in holiday mode and even the friendly report for wheat turned into a 20 cent move lower after several strong days of trading. Corn and soybeans did manage to close higher 6 and 10 cents as oil prices seem to be stalling around $90 and gold at $800.
The dollar has managed to hold the recent gains and looking more stable in spite of a 25 basis point cut by the FED. However, the stock market was not satisfied and profit taking from the recent gains pushed the DOW down almost 300 pts or 2.2%. We keep getting closer to the year end and after today’s reports it may be hard for the specs to have much incentive to push for new highs.
There was some profit taking today as we closed just above the 9-day moving average. Market broke some support at 64.50 and the market looks like it may try and test the 63.00 levels short term. RSI is under 40% and the specs are still 16% long. The demand has been steady but not overwhelming as the market looks like it cannot find enough ammunition to retest the contract highs any time soon.
Market trade may slide sideways in a 63/65 cent range as we get through the holidays and into the new year.
