——Brief Analysis on Price Index 20081215
Stimulated by the depreciation of RMB and other good news, the price index of the issue 20081215 of "China·Keqiao Textile Index" rebounded slightly, closed at 92.97 points, up 0.53% than the previous issue. From the first classification, it showed that the price indices of grey cloths category, apparel fabric category and home textile category rose up in different degrees, which dragged out the slight rebound of the general category price index.
The foreign exchange market changed a lot after a few months of calmness. The exchange rate of RMB against US Dollar dropped to the bottom falling line of 5/1000 in four consecutive trading days, releasing the sign of depreciation to those who are accustomed to the appreciation of RMB. According to the related information, the middle price of RMB (1 US Dollar against 1 Yuan) dropped to 6.8451 Yuan on Dec. 12 from 6.8505 Yuan on Dec. 1, tending to decline.
In a shirt term, the depreciation of RMB is a piece of good news to Shaoxing textile companies and trading companies in China Textile City, which definitely will motivate the momentum for foreign trade agencies to place orders. The slight depreciation of RMB against US Dollar also indicated that the dollar was getting stronger and recovered from the weakness caused by the international financial crisis. As more and more destination countries and regions adopt the settlement by dollar, in the long run, this will be beneficial to lifting up the consumption confidence of the international textile market and the increase of the demand. Among the policies for stimulating the export, the depreciation of RMB is the best choice. For Example, The effect of 1% depreciation of RMB is equal to the result of export rebate rate rising up 1.5% to 2%.
China Textile City of Shaoxing, as the largest textile distribution center in China and the largest professional textile market in Asia, deals in more than 30000 kinds of fabrics and the products are exported to 173 countries and regions. Thanks to the slight depreciation of RMB, in parts of cloth companies with a shop in front and a factory behind, trading companies and large sales runners, the foreign trade has already tended to warm back, the same to foreign orders receiving from Middle East, India, Russia, Brazil, South Africa, Burma and other ASEAN markets. Export-oriented fashion accessories manufacturing companies across the country have some increase in receiving foreign orders, and more customers purchase products in China Textile City. In apparel fabrics category in this issue, the price indices of the third subcategories can be shown directly, fashion fabrics category closed at 97.07 points, up 2.07% than the previous issue; nylon fabrics category closed at 112.7 points, up 2.45% than the previous issue; polyester/nylon fabrics category closed at 96.43 points, up 0.95% than the previous issue; polyester/spandex fabrics category closed at 96.54 points, up 0.38% than the previous issue; cotton fabrics category closed at 105.92 points, up 0.34% than the previous issue.
However, we should not be very optimistic on the effect taken by the depreciation of RMB to the whole export of Shaoxing textile and garment companies and China Textile City trading companies.There have several direct reasons for the poor situation of textile and garment companies: one reason is the high financial cost and production cost in parts of Shaoxing textile and garment companies. By raising export rebate rate and lowering the banking loan rate, the financial cost can be cut down. In the mean time, the raw materials prices constantly falling in Xiaoshan and Shaoxing region even in the whole domestic markets have already reduced some of the production cost of companies; The other reason is the declining consumption demand when the main export destination countries including America are influenced by the financial crisis, but the depreciation of RMB takes a limited role on the consumption demand of America and other countries.
Since the transaction of selling large amount of low-grade products takes up a certain market share in China Textile City, plus only half a month to the end of 2008, partial small and medium-sized business runners mainly sell the popular spot goods in low prices in order to withdraw the capitals, and some spot prices are still falling slightly.In this issue, this can be reflected in the price indices of the third subcategories of apparel fabrics category: polyester fabrics category closed at 95.01 points, down 0.85% than the previous issue; T/C fabrics category closed at 94.46 points, down 0.99% than the previous issue; polyester/wool fabrics category closed at 109.26 points, down 0.17 points than the previous issue. In the third subcategoriesof fashion accessories category, the price index of linings category closed at 93.86 points, down 3.04% than the previous issue; apparel linings category closed at 103.61 points, down 0.80% than the previous issue.
As it is predicted, the daily trade next week tends to go up slightly in a narrow fluctuation range. Though fabrics turn to sell well partially, the sales volume of the whole market is difficult to climb up largely, and the price and sales volume of each main variety tends to go up and down.
Raw materials category sells weakly and softly with a declining price index. The price index of raw materials category closed at 82.12 points, down 0.20% than the previous issue. â‘ In the raw materials category of this issue, the price index of viscose category fell down to the lowest because of the sharply decreasing trade volume. The viscose staple market tended to be weaker, the representative products of many categories lurched obviously, while the market price of rayon yarns presented a stably situation partially. â‘¡ The price index of cotton/ramie category dropped down slightly due to its sharp decrease in the trade. In Xiaoshan and Shaoxing region, the whole cotton yarns category remained the bleak business for the shrinking demand from the downstream. The price tend to go weakly. â‘¢ The price index of polyester category tended to slide down for the weakening demand of the downstream. In Xiaoshan and Shaoxing region, the downstream weaving factories and middlemen held the cautious attitude and kept a watch-and-see sentiment. The whole market price is mainly going stably with adjustment, and parts of unit prices of some varieties tend to go smoothly. The price of each variety tends to go up and down. However, POY filament factories relatively have a good production and marketing, the transaction of selling products in low prices gradually disappears; But the whole market still kept weak, mainly because of the slightly decline of FDY filament price and inadequate support to DTY price.
The winter and spring varieties in grey cloth category started to sell well, the price index climbed up higher. The price index of grey cloths category closed at 98.82 points, up 0.22% than the previous issue. In grey cloth category of this issue, the trade transaction on chemical fiber grey cloths increased more than the previous issue, the price index tended to rise up higher. The sales volume of blended fiber grey cloths grew more than the previous issue with a rising price index. The price and sales volume of natural fiber grey cloths kept stably, the price index remained the same as that of the previous issue.
The domestic and foreign demands on apparel fabrics partially increased, the price index rebounded sharply. The price index of apparel fabrics category closed at 97.78 points, up 1.02% than the previous issue. In this category, the price index of nylon/cotton fabrics rose to the highest for the increasing domestic and foreign trade orders. The price index of fashion fabrics category rose back obviously due to its partial increase in orders. Since the spot goods and order-sending rose up higher than the previous issue, the price indices of polyester/spandex fabrics and cotton fabrics went up slightly. In this issue, pure ramie fabrics category, T/R fabrics category, viscose fabrics category, viscose/wool fabrics category and ramie/viscose fabrics category had stable prices and sales volumes, and the price indices kept the same with that of the previous issue.
The trade on home textile increased more, the price index rose back slightly. The price index of home textile category closed at 96.67 points, up 0.01% than the previous issue. In this issue, the trade on curtain gauze category rose up higher than the previous issue, the price index tended to rebound slightly. The price and sales volume of daily-use home textile kept stable, the price index remained the same with that of the previous issue.
The trade on partial fashion accessories varieties dropped down sharply, the price index slid down slightly. The price index of fashion accessories category closed at 101.37 points, down 0.50% than the previous issue. According to the market response, in this issue, the spot goods and order-sending on linings category shrank sharply compared with that of the previous issue, the price index fell down to the lowest. The price index of apparel linings category dropped down slightly due to the sharp decline in trade.
Top 10 Categories in Rising
Top 10 Categories in Falling
1 Nylon/Cotton Fabrics
2.45%
1 Linings
-3.04%
2 Fashion Fabrics
2.07%
2 Viscose
-1.70%
3 Blended
1.02%
3 T/C Fabrics
-0.99%
4 Polyester/Nylon Fabrics
0.95%
4 Polyester Fabrics
-0.85%
5 Thread & Rope
0.95%
5 Apparel Linings
-0.80%
6 Curtain Gauzes
0.81%
6 Bedding Sets
-0.57%
7 Polyester/Spandex Fabrics
0.38%
7 Cotton/Ramie
-0.19%
8 Pure Cotton Fabrics
0.34%
8 Polyester/Wool Fabrics
-0.17%
9 Chemical Fiber Grey Cloths
0.29%
9 Polyester
-0.13%
10 Blended Fiber Grey Fabrics
0.08%
10 Curtains
-0.06%
In this issue, the price indices on nylon/cotton fabrics, fashion fabrics, blended category, polyester/nylon fabrics and thread & rope ranked in the first five categories in rising. The sales volume increased to different extents than the previous issue. The slight increase of unit price of partial representative products was the main factor.
In this issue, the price indices on linings, viscose category, T/C fabrics, polyester fabrics, apparel linings ranked in the first five categories in falling. The sales volume declined to different extents than the previous issue. The slight decrease of unit price of partial representative products was the main factor.
