Given record domestic mill demand for cotton continuing to outpace Chinese production, imports in 2007/08 are set to rise to the second-highest volume in history, even as June volume declines from its year-ago level. Through the first eleven months of this marketing year, Chinese cotton imports stand at 10.6 million bales, up 12.8% from this period last year. The growth came during seven of the last eleven months and was driven primarily by increased shipments from the U.S., up 15.9% from last year. This higher cumulative growth in imports offsets lower June volume, down -16.4% from twelve months earlier. Even so, arrivals through the first eleven months already outpace full-year imports in every other year except 2005/06.
While robust, this cumulative volume of cotton imports may still fall short of the USDA forecast for 2007/08. At 10.6 million bales, cumulative imports through eleven months are 1.7 million bales short of the import forecast of 12.25 million, implying the difference must be filled in July. However, evidence suggests imports may have difficulty filling that gap this month. The highest monthly import volume this year only reached 1.48 million bales in December, and never in over two years have monthly shipments climbed as high as the 1.7 million needed in July. Should July volume not reach this level, the USDA’s full-year imports may need to be revised lower to match the volume reported by China Customs Statistics.
