Beijing, CNCotton: According to the price monitoring center in Xinjiang Autonomous Region, as of February 28, around 950,000 tons of Xinjiang crop has moved into inland provinces, which is basically in line with year ago level. Assuming 1.9 mil tons of total crop and 300,000 tons local consumption, 650,000 tons remain to be exported.
At this time, debate over the actual size of 2005 Xinjiang crop is still high, some estimating at two mil tons. This will bring total exportable supplies to 750,000 tons. Local resources indicated that the overstock of Xinjiang crop has not improved. Since last September, the export pace has been identical to year ago level. Looking ahead, the situation may see some change during April through May period with an improved availability of railcars. Less stock at the railways stations has eased the situation somehow.
As for the price of Xinjiang crop, the prevailing offering levels are 13800 yuan per ton for T229. However, offtake has remained rather light. Despite an improved profit, most merchants are waiting for higher prices, say 14000. If price hike occurs in May, Xinjiang deliveries will be extremely concerntrated. And even if price does not go higher, all these remaining supplies will have to move out as temperatures turns very high to cause short-weighted problems. Based on such an expectation, monthly deliveries of Xinjiang crop could be above 160,000 tons from April to July.
