Physical trade improved with steady price
For the past week (June 12-16), domestic spot cotton price held steady. ZCE and CNCE prices plunged. Cotton yarn price was weaker and polyester staple price drifted higher.
1. Physical sales appeared somewhat accelerated
According to the survey by the National Cotton Market Monitoring System with the 11 provinces (56 counties/cities), by June 14, cumulative seed cotton procurement by the selected 608 farmers totaled 1,751.31 tons, 97.12% of the entire production. This is 0.02% higher than previous week but 1.52% lower than year ago level.
According to another survey with the 66 mid-large size cotton processing enterprises, by June 14, the progress for the new cotton’s processing was at the rate of 96.73%, 0.01% higher than previous week but 2.67% lower than year ago level. Average selling progress rate recorded 67.04%, up 1.38% from a week earlier but a 13.66% decline year on year.
Based on a 5.7 mil ton crop, cumulative lint cotton procurement has reached 5.4833 mil tons, a 1,300 tons increase compared to previous week. Cotton processing was up 4,000 tons to 5.304 mil tons and cumulative selling increased 80,000 tons to 3.68 mil tons.
2. Physical price again tumbled, ZCE and CNCE prices plunged
A wide-spread acceleration of domestic sales was noted a week before. However, as rumors about additional import quotas and bank loan repayment deadline took a toll, domestic cotton prices were again lower, which is soon followed by a sharp fall of price in ZCE and CNCE market.
On June 15, CNCotton B index average price was up 3 RMB or 0.02% to 14,083 RMB/ton. MA0608 was down 295 RMB to 14295 RMB/ton, reflecting a 2.02% decrease. CF0608 closed at 14399 RMB/ton, down 132 RMB from last week, a drop of 0.91% from previous week.
3. Cotton yarn price posted minor drops, polyester staple price continued higher
Domestic cotton yarn price was marginally lower. 32s carded yarn is quoted at 19,395 RMB/ton, down 5 from previous week, reflecting a 0.03% decrease. Polyester staple price surged 140 to 11040 RMB/ton, a increase of 1.28% from a week earlier.
4. Outlook for the coming week
The improvement in domestic sales ended this week as mills purchase dried up in response to quota rumors. The May economic data shows that bank loan maintained a fast growth and totaled 209.4 bil RMB in May, 10.05 bil higher than year ago level. Cumulative Jan-May bank loans have reached 1783.4 bil RMB, more than 70% of the whole year’s estimates of 2500 bil RMB.
Release from National Bureau of Statistics shows that, for the first five months, fixed asset investment for urban areas posted a 30% year on year increase. The second round of overheated investment is now evident. This suggests a tight currency policy in the near future by the central bank. The Yuan exchange rate over US dollar broke 8 on June 14 again, indicating a clear intention by central bank to accelerate Yuan appreciation. These developments, coupled with an increasing pressure of loan repayment in June, will cap any price rally in the longer term.
