Latest trade statistics just confirmed the surge in China's textile and apparel exports in the first months without quotas.
According to China's official statistics, apparel exports to the United States were up 147% in February to US$650 million while shipments to Europe rose 188% to US$783 million.
Growth rates are much higher in quota-freed categories. China's exports of knit shirts to the United States surged 603% to US$1.6 million in February.
Cotton trouser exports to the US market were up 548% to US$60 million.
These first February data will put more pressure on US government to rapidly re-impose quotas on a wide range of textile and apparel imports from China.
Safeguard petitions have been filed by US textile lobbying groups in the second half last year and accepted for consideration by US administration.
Since petitions were based on the threat of market disruption and not on effective data, however, they were easily attacked by US importers.
By the end of last year, a US Court ruled that all investigations should be suspended. The decision was appealed by US government but will not be considered before the beginning of May.
Quotas were eliminated and US imports from China surged in the meantime. There is no more need for threat-based safeguards as a result.
The US administration is now expected self-initiating new safeguard investigations based on effective surge in imports and consecutive market disruption.
The US Commerce Secretary Carlos Gutierrez last week announced that textile trade data would be more rapidly released in the future.
Statistics related to the first quarter would be available by the beginning of April.
A biweekly publication of US Customs data will help in monitoring imports, speeding up investigations and safeguard actions.
Based on first quarter statistics, US administration will probably self-initiate investigations in most sensitive categories.
Given the 3-month procedure time, US quotas could therefore be re-imposed from mid-summer.
In the meantime, imports from China will have surged to much higher levels. Under WTO's rules, quotas are reimposed at 7.5% above the level reached in the first twelve months of the most recent 14 months (6% only for wool articles).
New quotas would therefore be based on 1-Year US imports until May 1st or June 1st, 2005. The new quotas would probably not be filled before the end of the current year, in addition.
Whatever the US decision, the delay in imposing safeguards is adding to current uncertainty on the global market, barring US importers and apparel brands to radically boost imports from China.
