Quota fill rates are surprisingly low only two weeks after Washington reimposed limits on a long list of imports from China.
In category 347/348 (cotton trousers) for instance, only 8.78% of the limit was reached on June 9, indicating that quotas would be filled in 217 days from the start of the quota period (see our table below).
The estimated date of embargo would therefore be December 26 with no clear damage for Chinese exporters and US importers.
In other categories, the estimated number of days to embargo would be much higher with a free entry of Chinese products until the end of the year, as a consequence.
The speed at which Chinese products are being cleared by the US Customs is rapidly rising, however.
Compared with a week ago, quota fill rates increased from 3.40% to 8.78% in categories 337/338 (cotton knit shirts) and from 3.05% to 7.85% in categories 347/348 (cotton trousers).
The forecasted number of days to embargo therefore fell for both 338/339 and 347/348.
In category 352/652 (cotton and MMF underwear), quota fill rates surprisingly fell after data were revised by US customs.
US imports from China actually accelerated in the last weeks before quotas were reimposed, according to latest data released by US Commerce Department.
In the four-week period to June 4, imports from China reached 3.4 million dozen in categories 347/348 compared to a level of 2.8 million in the four weeks to May 21.
A similar rise in shipments from China was reported for other categories now subject to quotas, except for combed cotton yarns in category 301.
If extrapolating those data, embargoes would be placed in July and August, in sharp contrast with currently low quota fill rates.
EmergingTextiles.com
