Cotton prices zigzagged higher last week, registering the best weekly gain in six weeks while posting the highest close in a month.
This despite the vast majority of the volume being done on switches, spreads and rolls related to liquidation of the open interest in May, a scattering of rains in West Texas, new all-time records of certificated stock and a basically bearish supply/demand report out of USDA.
Ending stocks are now projected at their highest level in 41 years. For the week, May and July still gained 330 points while Dec gained 364 points.
In other markets for the week, the CRB gained 900 points. Strength came from gold which gained $14, crude oil $4 and soybeans gained 38 to 55 cents and of course, cotton but corn lost 4 to 14 cents while wheat lost 71 to 74 cents.
As is always the case following option expiration, the spec/hedge report will be delayed on day. Those will positions or contracts involving the May contract have eight more sessions before issuance of delivery notices on Wednesday night, April 23rd.
Technically, the market still looks quite strong even though prices have advanced almost 700 points just since the first of the month. Money managers are still quite bullish commodities and willing to commit funds.
US cotton continues to get relatively cheaper in China as the Yuan soars to record levels against the dollar. However, bulls might be wise to exercise caution at this level.
Lastweek's export sales report was the third best of the season and reflective of the demand resting below 70 cents. However, realistically, prices appear to have once again run off and left demand below.
Nevertheless, fundamental support in the form of both fixations and fresh export off take will likely be found on dips of two to three cents as well as technical support between 7250 and 7050, basis May..
Interestingly, seasonal patterns do not favor the bull. In fact the July cotton has declined between this date and the end of the first week of May during 13 of the last 15 years However, several of those years, the decline in prices did not begin until later in the month.
December's chart shows independent strength with technical support beginning at 8270 with a convergence of the 9 through 50 day moving averages. Even more retracement support will be found around 8160.
