China extended its position as a larger net importer of cotton yarn in August as plummeting exports offset mildly weaker imports. August shipments out of Chinese ports fell -21.6% from a year earlier, down to 44,452 metric tons, the lowest August in three years. This month marks the ninth time in the last twelve months that volume declined, and marks the largest drop in three and a half years. The precipitous fall eroded the year-to-date gain to only 1.1% from the first eight months of last year, suggesting 2008 shipments may still rise from last year, but at the slowest rate in years. While higher volume this year would reach a new record and mark the ninth annual increase in the last decade, cotton yarn exports may have difficulty reaching 600,000 tons, just below Globecot's earlier forecast.
Declines in cotton yarn imports appear to be easing, but remain on track to drop for the second straight year. August shipments slipped -2.1% from a year earlier to 63,102 tons, the thirteenth consecutive month of declines. But this was also the smallest decline over this period, suggesting falling imports are moderating and may be approaching a bottom. Year to date, shipments are down -13.5% from the first eight months of last year to just over 555,000 tons. Globecot models continue to suggest from here that 2008 cotton yarn imports will fall, but at a decelerating rate to just under 790,000 tons, the lowest volume since 2004.
