Hong Kong Retail Management Association chairwoman Caroline Mak said she is pessimistic about Christmas retail sales, which she expects to fall to single digits.
"The wealth of almost every Hong Kong identity card holder has shrunk in the financial turmoil," Mak said. "People are spending carefully to avoid unnecessary expenses and are ready to tighten their belts."
Mak said sales promotions cannot spur consumer sentiment as people are unwilling to spend due to the prevailing mood, not so much due to high prices. She expects September retail sales to slide from last year's level, as consumer sentiment has dropped over the past six weeks.
Mak expects it to take at least six months for retail sales to recover.
Sun Hung Kai Financial analyst Fiona Wong said: "I'd be delighted to see single-digit growth in December and very surprised to see low double- digit growth.
"Consumer sentiment is very bad now. Shops have launched presales much earlier and have cut prices seriously. But working-class people are not willing to spend because their job security is poor. They may have also experienced losses in the stock market."
Tommy Ho at UOB Kay Hian expects Christmas sales to be flat.
Times Square Limited general manager Leng Yen-thean said the local retail market might post negative growth in the fourth quarter compared with last year.
"But we are confident of seeing some growth this Christmas in our mall after retail tenants have consolidated with popular brands, though the percentage may not be rosy," Leng said.
She said the Causeway Bay mall's weekend traffic grew slightly this month but the spending per head decreased. "Some luxury-goods retailers told me sales value per customer dropped more than 10 percent," Leng said.
Times Square's sales growth last month fell to 10 percent compared with a year earlier, from first- half growth of 15 percent to 20 percent, she said.
