Cotton Falls to Six-Year Low on Concern Consumption Will Slump
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Pundarik [2011-05-20]
Cotton prices fell to the lowest in more than six years on speculation that demand for the fiber will continue to drop. Orange-juice futures also declined.
World cotton use will be 119.3 million bales in the year ending July 31, or 2.4 percent less than forecast last month, the U.S. Department of Agriculture said today. The agency has cut its forecast for five straight months, citing slower textile demand. Mills around the world used 123.4 million bales last year. Cotton prices are down 40 percent in the past 12 months.
"People are just expecting more consumption cuts to come," said Hibbie Barrier, a director at Avondale Futures in Nashville, Tennessee. "We'll be stretching new boundaries after a significant cut from last year to this year."
Cotton futures for December delivery fell 0.83 cent, or 2 percent, to 41.24 cents a pound on ICE Futures U.S. in New York. Earlier, the price touched 39.78 cents, the lowest for a most- active contract since June 19, 2002.
Cotton opened higher, gaining as much as 4.8 percent, after China unveiled a $586 billion stimulus package, pushing up equity markets worldwide. The Standard & Poor's 500 Index then fell as much as 2.5 percent on concern that earnings will slump.
"The Chinese stimulus plan was initially supportive, but it will take a while for anything like that to filter in," Barrier said.
Cotton tumbled 23 percent in October, the steepest monthly drop since at least April 1986.
`Plenty of Sellers'
"We could see another 5 cents or 10 cents taken off before the tide turns, as there are plenty of willing sellers betting on declines, while potential buyers remain selective in anticipation of greater bargains,'' Peter Egli, a director of risk management in Phoenix for U.K-based Plexus Cotton Ltd., said in a report on Nov. 6, when cotton closed at 42.98 cents.
China is the world's biggest cotton user and textile exporter. The U.S. is the largest exporter of the fiber.
Orange-juice futures for January delivery fell 1.75 cents, or 2 percent, to 84.8 cents a pound on ICE, the biggest drop for a most-active contract since Oct. 31. The price has slumped 41 percent this year.